ORCL Stock Is Shaking Off AI Debt Jitters: Q4 Results Will Test If Rally Is Here To Stay

• Oracle will report its Q4 results on Wednesday. 
• Analysts expect revenue to increase 20% to $19.19 billion, and the majority of them recommend a ‘Buy’ on shares at this stage.
• Stocktwits sentiment for ORCL has oscillated between ‘extremely bullish’ and ‘bullish’ in the past week.

Oracle Corp.’s stock has surged nearly 60% from its 52-week low in April, navigating around market fears about its burgeoning debt and reliance on a handful of AI customers. With its fourth-quarter report due this week, investors will assess the risks and progress of its ambitious capacity expansion plans as demand for AI computing continues to surge with little sign of slowing.

Several analysts raised their price targets on ORCL in the past week, and most expect results to be stable and broadly in line with expectations, with the focus shifting on how quickly the company’s record backlog of forward contracts translates into revenue. 

"A central question for (the fiscal fourth quarter) is whether Oracle can demonstrate that data center capacity is coming online fast enough to meet the demand pipeline it has been signaling," RBC Capital Markets said in its investor note.

The cloud computing company's remaining performance obligations (RPO) increased a whopping 325% to $533 billion in the third quarter.

"Any deceleration, or color suggesting that deal activity slowed due to capacity constraints rather than demand softness, will be a key differentiator for how the market interprets the print," the research firm said. 

It kept its ‘Sector Perform’ rating on ORCL but raised its price target to $190 from $160, implying an 11% downside from the last close.

Citi analysts expect Oracle’s cloud strength to continue into the fourth quarter. They see Oracle posting an in-line quarter, with accelerating infrastructure-as-a-service growth. Citi kept its ‘Buy’ rating but raised the price target to $330 from $320. UBS, Scotiabank, and Cantor Fitzgerald also raised their price target.

ORCL Q4 Earnings: What Wall Street Expects

Oracle will report its results after the markets close on Wednesday. Analysts expect revenue to increase 20% to $19.19 billion in the fourth quarter, according to estimates from Koyfin. Adjusted profit is seen rising 15% to $1.96 per share. 

In the third quarter, Oracle revenue increased 22% to $17.2 billion, with cloud revenue climbing 44%. The company’s total debt increased 60% to a record $153.1 billion.

Oracle has a massive $300 billion, five-year cloud deal with OpenAI, announced last September, with capacity coming online in 2027. Oracle is taking on massive debt to build new data centers ahead of the deal’s start, with revenues expected to begin flowing in only next year.

In February, the company announced plans to raise up to $50 billion through a combination of debt and equity financing, while indicating that no additional bond issuances are expected during 2026 beyond that target.

“Customer concentration is a real risk for Oracle, given its outsize exposure to OpenAI,” Morningstar said in its June 5 investor note. “We see a scenario where OCI successfully converts all bookings into revenue as AI becomes prevalent and OpenAI maintains its leadership. However, OpenAI or other customers can also dramatically reduce or cancel their bookings if their generative AI products miss the growth target.”

ORCL Stock: Is Retail Aligned With Analysts?

On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment for ORCL has moved between ‘extremely bullish’ and ‘bullish’ over the past week, with message volume rising 27%.

“$ORCL If the price is above $250 after Wednesday’s earnings, there will be plenty of traders kicking themselves for panic-selling at Friday’s lows,” said a trader. 

Another wrote: “After recent profit taking and technical pullbacks, the tape is showing rotation rather than panic,” referring to the tech selloff after Broadcom’s soft forecast. “Next week brings a few events worth watching: $ORCL earnings will shed light on AI infrastructure adoption. For traders, the key is observing how these events impact positioning and volume, rather than trying to predict exact moves.”

On Wall Street, currently 36 of 43 analysts covering ORCL rate it ‘Buy’ or higher, six rate it ‘Hold,’ and only one rates it ‘Sell,’ according to Koyfin. Their average price target of $251.20 implies an 18% upside from the stock’s last close.

Year to date, ORCL shares are up 10%.

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