RKLB Stock Rises Overnight: Cathie Wood’s ARK Sees ‘Enormous Opportunity’ As SpaceX Eyes Falcon 9 Retirement

• ARK bought about 233,482 Rocket Lab shares worth $16.6 million last week across ARKK, ARKQ and ARKX.
• Falcon 9 is reportedly fully booked until 2028 or 2029 for some customers; its retirement depends on Starship achieving reliable, frequent flights.
• Neutron’s readiness remains key, while Rocket Lab’s proposed $8 billion Iridium acquisition would add a satellite fleet and spectrum.

Shares of Rocket Lab (RKLB) rose 0.3% overnight heading into Tuesday as Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment Management said SpaceX’s upcoming shift away from Falcon 9 could create an “enormous opportunity” for rival launch providers.

RKLB stock declined 1% on Monday to $73.02, snapping two straight sessions of gains. 

ARK Bets On RKLB With A Launch Bottleneck

ARK analysts Tasha Keeney and Daniel Maguire said that a U.S. launch bottleneck could emerge if SpaceX scales Starship toward 10,000 annual flights by 2030, mostly for StarMind orbital data centers, and retires Falcon 9 by the decade’s end.

That could create an “enormous opportunity” for Rocket Lab and Stoke Space to capture share, they said, “should their medium-lift rockets deliver.” Multiple providers would support the U.S. government’s preference for a diversified supply chain and offer alternatives to communications, cloud and AI companies unwilling to rely on SpaceX for launch. 

The analysis followed Starship Flight 14, which reached orbit and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites despite an engine shutdown. ARK estimated the added capacity could support nearly $560 million in annualized revenue. ARK also sees full reusability potentially lowering launch costs to $100 per kilogram or less at scale, improving orbital data-center economics. Flight 15’s upper-stage catch is the next major test.

Meanwhile, ARK bought about 233,482 Rocket Lab (RKLB) shares worth $16.6 million last week, comprising $12.6 million in the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), $2.9 million in the ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ) and $1.1 million in the ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (ARKX). 

The buying extends ARK’s return to the stock after earlier sales, including exits from ARKQ and ARKX in June. It also bought about $25.7 million across the three funds last month. 

SpaceX Customers Face Launch Crunch

At least seven spacecraft companies have reportedly been told Falcon 9 is fully booked until 2028 or 2029. Starlink’s share of its missions has risen from 54% in 2020 to about 79% in 2026. Some customers have apparently struggled to secure flights after 2028 as SpaceX winds down shared launches.

Musk has tied Falcon’s phaseout to Starship reliably flying several times a week, rather than a fixed retirement date. Government missions could keep Falcon operating into the early 2030s.

Rocket Lab’s Next Leap Depends On Neutron

Meanwhile, Rocket Lab secured its largest commercial Electron agreement last week: 20 dedicated Synspective launches scheduled from 2028 through 2031. The deal brings Synspective’s contracted Electron missions to 47 and Rocket Lab’s launch backlog above 100. 

Its Sept. 26 flight, the 97th Electron mission and 18th of 2026, deployed Synspective’s 13th StriX radar satellite. However, Capturing ARK’s medium-lift opportunity depends on Neutron, which has yet to generate launch revenue. Rocket Lab targeted fourth-quarter delivery to the pad, and has since said the window for a flight before year-end is narrowing.

Rocket Lab’s proposed $8 billion Iridium Communications (IRDM) acquisition would also add a satellite fleet and spectrum. The deal is expected to close in mid-2027.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About RKLB?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for RKLB slipped to ‘bearish’ from ‘neutral’ levels a dat ago amid a 172% jump in 24-hour message volumes.

One user said, “$RKLB End to End hidden gem. Billions and billions in backlog and valued working banked worth”

Another user said, “$RKLB I think $65 or less is a nice dip buy, yet 6 handle is good buy too. Long-term thru short-term, it all depends on your situation. $SPCX is stealing our full potential thunder not for too much longer! Both SpaceX and Rocket Lab will bring parabolic gains!”

RKLB stock has risen 5% year-to-date.

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