S&P 500 Is Up More Than 12% This Year — And One Analyst Says The Run Isn't Over

• The revised target implies an upside of more than 4% from Friday’s close of 7,674.37. 
• The firm has cited a stronger earnings ‌outlook and confidence profit growth will sustain through next year for its revision. 
• UBS has also upped its mid-year 2027 S&P 500 index target to 8,400 from 8,200.

The S&P 500 has rallied strongly in 2026, jumping more than 12% year to date and outpacing last year's performance through the same window, with multiple records along the way. One Wall Street firm thinks the run still has room to go.

UBS Global Wealth Management has revised its year-end target for the benchmark index to 8,100, according to a Reuters report. The revised target implies an upside of more than 4% from Friday’s close of 7,674.37. 

Why Does UBS Think S&P 500 Can Gain More?

The firm has cited a stronger earnings ‌outlook and confidence profit growth sustaining through next year for its revision. 

As per Reuters, UBS Bank’s wealth management arm has hiked its forecasts for S&P 500 earnings per share to $350 in 2026 and $400 in 2027, up from earlier estimates of $335 and $375, respectively.

The firm said it has an "attractive" view on U.S. equities, citing "three ​pillars" that support its bull market thesis — resilient economic growth, supportive monetary policy, and AI adoption.

"While AI-related companies remain key contributors, recent performance has also been supported by improving conditions ​in more cyclical ​parts ⁠of the economy," the analyst reportedly said in a note last week. 

UBS has also upped its mid-year 2027 S&P 500 index target to 8,400 from 8,200.

Where Does Wall Street Stand?

UBS Wealth Management’s hike on the benchmark index follows other Wall Street analysts, who have also noted a potentially higher upside to the S&P 500 this year. 

Last week, Evercore ISI analyst Julian Emanuel said that the index has the potential to run to 9,000 in the next 12 months. Meanwhile, Wall Street’s broader 2026 forecasts have also moved higher following stronger earnings expectations.

Below are the latest year-end targets for the index from multiple analysts.

How Has S&P 500 Performed In Recent Years?

The benchmark index gained more than 16% in the whole of 2025. If current gains continue and match up to Wall Street expectations, the index is likely to outperform last year’s performance. However, the S&P 500 rallied about 24% in 2024. The index would have to double its gains from the current 12% levels to beat that performance. 

Retail View On S&P 500

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, was ‘bearish’ at the time of writing, having slipped from the ‘bullish’ zone a week ago.

Meanwhile, retail sentiment on iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) was ‘neutral’ at the time of writing.

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