Slimmer Waistlines, Fatter Margins: Jefferies Says Airline Companies Will Profit From America’s Weight-Loss Boom

• According to a CNBC report, Jefferies said in a note to clients that a 10% reduction in average weight per passenger could result in about 2% weight savings per aircraft, in turn reducing fuel costs by up to 1.5%. 
• This could result in up to a 4% increase in earnings per share.
• American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, and Southwest Airlines are touted to be among the largest beneficiaries, as per Jefferies.

Wall Street analyst Jefferies believes America’s weight-loss obsession could benefit airline companies through lower fuel costs.

According to a report in CNBC, Jefferies said in a note to clients that a 10% reduction in average weight per passenger could result in about 2% weight savings per aircraft, in turn reducing fuel costs by up to 1.5%. This could lead to up to a 4% increase in earnings per share, as per the analyst.

Weight is a major determinant of fuel efficiency for aircraft since the higher the weight of a plane, the more fuel it burns. As GLP-1 weight-loss drugs become commercially available in pill form, Jefferies sees a broad adoption of these lowering fuel bills, a big chunk of operating expenses, for aircrafts.

“A slimmer society = lower fuel consumption,” Jefferies reportedly said in the note, reaffirming a stance that it has taken before.

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL), Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL), United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL), and Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) are touted to be among the largest beneficiaries from the weight-loss boom, as per Jefferies.

The Math

The four largest U.S. airlines are collectively expected to use about 16 billion gallons of fuel in 2026, as per Jefferies. Estimating an average price of $2.41 a gallon, this would come up to nearly $39 billion for the year, the firm said.

Jefferies said that assuming that a 1% reduction in aircraft weight could improve fuel efficiency by 0.75%, a 2% decline in weight per passenger on average could lead to about a 4% earnings upside per share for the airlines, with potential earnings per share (EPS) boost of about 2.8% for Delta Air Lines, 3.5% for United Airlines, 4.2% for Southwest Airlines, and up to 11.7% for American Airlines.

In 2023, Jefferies released a broader analysis on the potential beneficiaries of 
Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) Ozempic drug use, noting how airlines were likely to benefit. The analyst outlined its case with an example of United Airlines at the time, citing it would save $80 million a year, assuming an average passenger weight loss of 10 pounds.

Weight-Loss Market

The global weight-loss drug market is expanding rapidly. As per McKinsey, nearly one in three adults in the U.S. or roughly 100 million people, and another 900 million worldwide, meet the clinical criteria for obesity.

Morgan Stanley estimates that roughly 11% of 1.3 billion people across the world could be on obesity drugs, translating to about 20% of eligible patients in the U.S. and 10% in other countries. At present, the adoption rate for weight-loss drugs is around 3% in the U.S. and 1% in other countries.

As per Morgan Stanley, the market for these drugs could reach $150 billion by 2035, up from $15 billion in 2024, while IQVIA projects the market will reach $130 billion by 2034.

At present, the market relies largely on injectable GLP-1 and GLP-1/GIP receptor agonists, which reduce appetite and improve metabolic control. Novo Nordisk leads with drugs like Wegovy, while Lilly has strengthened its position with Zepbound (tirzepatide).

However, in December 2025, the Wegovy pill was greenlit by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, becoming the first FDA-approved oral GLP-1 class drug for weight management. Meanwhile, rival Eli Lilly (LLY), expects its oral obesity drug Orforglipron to be approved for commercial use early this year.

Shares of DAL have gained about 2.5% in the past year while UAL stock gained nearly 3% in the same time and LUV shares have rallied over 27%. Meanwhile, shares of AAL have lost over 17% in the past year.

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