SMCI Stock Reverses Course After Nvidia-Related Smuggling Tumble — One Analyst Reportedly Bets It Will ‘Bounce’ Back

• However, the report noted that both the firm and its founder own SMCI shares via managed accounts. 
• Earlier in the day, Northland downgraded Super Micro to ‘Market Perform’ from ‘Outperform’ with a $22 price target. 
• As of Monday, 11 out of 17 analysts covering SMCI stock had a ‘Hold’ or lower rating, according to data from Koyfin.

Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) is garnering attention both on Wall Street and among retail traders after the company made headlines last week over the indictment of three associated individuals over violating U.S. chip export rules.

While analysts have widely downgraded SMCI stock, Navellier & Associates founder Louis Navellier is betting on the company, according to a Barron’s report. “I expect that the stock will bounce,” Navellier reportedly said in a research note.

On Stocktwits, retail chatter around the company has been ‘extremely high,’ rising about 78% in the past 24 hours, and a whopping 1,812.5% over the past seven days.

SMCI stock was up about 4.5% at the time of writing.

The Contrarian Bet

Navellier noted Super Micro’s recent 123% sales growth, and sales forecast of an increase of 171%, citing them to be reasons for the stock to bounce back, from its drop of about 33% on Friday.

“The company is cooperating with the Department of Justice, [so] I do not expect Super Micro Computer to be charged,” Navellier said, as per Barron’s.

However, the report also noted that both the firm, Navellier & Associates, as well as the founder, own SMCI shares via managed accounts.

Meanwhile, other analysts have downgraded the stock. Earlier in the day, Northland downgraded Super Micro to ‘Market Perform’ from ‘Outperform’ with a $22 price target, an upside of about 2% from its current trading price of $21.52, as per TheFly. Analyst Nehal Chokshi said that although the firm sees the separation of the Chief Compliance Officer and CFO roles as a positive, the move appeared reactionary instead of being proactive.

The analyst said that Super Micro will likely face flattish revenue and earnings growth until further actions separate the Chairman and CEO roles as well.

Wall Street’s Stance

Wall Street has overwhelmingly bet against the stock after allegations emerged that Super Micro executives, including co-founder Yih-Shyan “Wally” Liaw, had conspired to smuggle high-performance computer servers assembled in the United States, specifically those of Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), to China, even though the company was not named.

Over the weekend, Argus downgraded Super Micro shares to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy.’ CJS Securities also double-downgraded Super Micro stock to ‘Underperform’ from ‘Outperform’.  

As of Monday, 11 out of 17 analysts covering the stock had a ‘Hold’ or lower rating on the stock, according to data from Koyfin.

Retail Sentiment

However, retail traders are optimistic about the stock, with sentiment at ‘extremely bullish’ compared to ‘bearish’ a week ago.

One user touted the company’s $12 billion market cap and strong expected revenues for a bullish stance.

SMCI shares are down nearly 31% so far in 2026.

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