SPCX Stock Slides After ‘Leading Competitor’ China's Reusable Rocket Launch – So, Why Is Bernstein Still Bullish?

• Bernstein maintained an 'Outperform' rating and a $239 price target, saying SpaceX still leads the reusable rocket market by a wide margin.
• The firm noted that China has yet to demonstrate booster reuse, while SpaceX has routinely reflown Falcon 9 boosters for years.
• Wall Street's average price target still implies more than 66% upside, although some investors continue to question the company's valuation.

Shares of Elon Musk-led SpaceX (SPCX) tumbled in morning trade on Monday, amid broader weakness in the market, after Bernstein stated that China would be the company’s biggest competitor going forward, following the successful launch of Long March 10B last week.

The firm maintained an ‘Outperform’ rating on SPCX and a price target of $239. It named China as SpaceX’s "leading competitor" following Beijing's first successful landing of a reusable rocket booster.

SPCX’s stock fell over 3% at market open, on track to hit fresh record lows if losses hold till market close. Retail sentiment around the company on Stocktwits trended in ‘bearish’ territory over the past day.

China Marks A Milestone In Reusable Rockets

China's Long March 10B rocket lifted off from Hainan Island on July 10, deployed a satellite into orbit, and returned its first-stage booster to a sea-based recovery platform roughly six minutes after stage separation. 

The recovery used a net-and-hook system on a floating platform rather than the landing legs SpaceX's Falcon 9 uses. It marked China's first successful recovery of an orbital-class booster, achieved roughly six months earlier than Bernstein had anticipated, according to the firm's note.

Bernstein Says SpaceX Still Holds A Wide Lead

Despite the milestone, Bernstein noted that China remains well behind SpaceX operationally. It said that SpaceX has been relaunching Falcon 9 boosters for nearly a decade, and has completed 165 launches last year alone, a cadence backed by a robust second-stage production line. 

Meanwhile, China's Long March 10B has yet to demonstrate booster reuse. It only has a single successful landing on its debut flight, and the rocket's design allows for first-stage reuse. Starship, by contrast, is designed to be fully reusable, first and second stages, though that capability hasn't been demonstrated yet either. State media reported that China plans to refly the same booster by year-end, a step that would begin to close that specific gap.

SpaceX Valuation Debate Continues

Scott Redler, chief strategist at T3 Trading Group, called SPCX stock an "avoid" in a post on X after it fell below its debut price. The shares, which opened at $150 during their debut last month, closed at a record low of about $145 on Friday. 

The stock had soared past $200 in its first days of trading and hit a record high of over $225 on June 16.

According to Koyfin data, the average 12-month price target from over 30 analysts is $242.22, implying an upside of over 66% from current levels. Raymond James has a Street-high target of $800. 

Critics, including investor Jeremy Grantham, have separately flagged the stock's valuation as resting heavily on speculative assumptions about AI infrastructure rather than proven launch or Starlink economics.

Read also: Michael Saylor’s MSTR Didn't Buy A Single Bitcoin This Week – Here's What It Did Instead

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com