Tesla Faces Q3 Delivery Test — JPMorgan Cuts Forecast, Flags Weakness In Two Key Markets

• JPMorgan lowered TSLA’s price target to $415 from $445 and kept a ‘Neutral’ rating.
• The firm reduced its delivery estimate for Tesla to 482,000 units in Q3, down from 516,000.
• JPMorgan also lowered its gross-margin estimates, citing higher raw-material costs.

Ahead of Tesla’s (TSLA) closely watched third-quarter deliveries later this week, JPMorgan lowered its price target and slashed its delivery forecast, citing weaker-than-expected performance across its two largest markets.

TSLA shares edged 0.5% lower in pre-market trading Monday.

Weakness In US And China

JPMorgan cut Tesla’s price target to $415 from $445 while maintaining a ‘Neutral’ rating, according to TheFly. The firm said it expects Tesla to deliver about 482,000 vehicles in the third quarter (Q3), about 6.5% lower than its previous estimate of 516,000, citing weaker-than-expected deliveries in the U.S. and China.

Based on July and August data, the brokerage said Tesla’s sales trends remained mixed across major markets. In August, Tesla’s new vehicle registrations dipped nearly 13% in China and around 4% in the U.S.

Wall Street Divided Ahead Of Q3 Deliveries

JPMorgan’s forecast adds to a wide range of expectations on Wall Street ahead of Tesla’s Q3 numbers.

Goldman Sachs recently slashed its forecast to 435,000 vehicles from 490,000, saying weaker sales in the U.S., China and Europe could offset strength in export markets such as Southeast Asia, South America and Australia.

Barclays is more optimistic, forecasting 475,000 deliveries, while StoneX expects about 446,500. Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2.

Overall, Tesla’s European business has shown signs of improvement. EU registrations jumped nearly 53% in August, although Chinese rivals BYD, Chery and Leapmotor grew much faster. Across the broader EU, EFTA and the U.K. region, Tesla registrations rose just 4%.

JPMorgan Cuts Margin Expectations

JPMorgan also lowered its gross margin estimates, citing higher raw material costs, incentives offered during the quarter, and elevated interest rates.

Meanwhile, analysts continue to look beyond vehicle sales toward Tesla’s AI, autonomous driving, energy storage, and robotics businesses. Barclays recently said Tesla’s fundamentals have become “mostly an afterthought” relative to its broader AI story, while StoneX expects its fast-growing energy storage business to offset some of the losses in vehicle registrations.

Retail’s Take on TSLA

Retail sentiment surrounding TSLA on Stocktwits has remained ‘neutral’ over the past 24 hours.

The shares are down 15% so far this year, the only stock among the so-called Magnificent 7 to trade in the red.

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