Tesla Stock Heads For Red June — Jefferies Warns It Could Become a SpaceX Proxy As Merger Talk Builds

• Jefferies cut its TSLA price target to $375 and warned that Tesla could start trading more like a SpaceX proxy as merger speculation builds.
• The firm said expectations of a Tesla-SpaceX merger could turn TSLA into a “tracker” as shareholders weigh potential dilution of their stakes.
• Jefferies also said Tesla’s “valuation & estimates remain disconnected.”

Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) are eyeing a monthly loss as Jefferies warns that Tesla could start trading more like a SpaceX proxy if merger speculation around Elon Musk’s two companies keeps building.

TSLA stock jumped over 1% on Monday, logging its second straight session of gains. However, shares are on track for a monthly loss after declining 7% so far in June. 

Jefferies Flags SpaceX Proxy Risk

Jefferies trimmed its TSLA price target to $375, flagging a new risk for investors that growing consensus around a Tesla-SpaceX merger could make TSLA shares tied to SpaceX rather than Tesla’s own fundamentals. Jefferies said Tesla did not sell off ahead of SpaceX’s blockbuster IPO, but the firm warned that the market may now be pricing in a different kind of risk, Investing.com noted. 

“Consensus that a merger will be next and soon may turn TSLA into a tracker as shareholders try to minimize stake dilution,” Jefferies said. The research firm added that instead of trading mainly on EV deliveries, margins, robotaxi progress, or Optimus milestones, TSLA could begin to move on investor expectations around SpaceX’s valuation and the potential exchange ratio in any future deal. Jefferies also said Tesla’s “valuation & estimates remain disconnected.”

While much of Tesla’s premium valuation rests on robotaxis and humanoid robots eventually becoming high-margin businesses, Jefferies said investors may be overlooking the costly launch phase. The firm said it is “assuming launching robotaxis & humanoids will initially create loss centers.” 

Goldman Sees Better Q2 Deliveries

Goldman Sachs recently said that Tesla’s second-quarter deliveries are likely tracking ahead of the 400,000-unit consensus estimate. The firm raised its forecast to 420,000 units from 405,000, citing regional sales data from China, the U.S. and Europe.

Europe is showing strong year-over-year growth, Goldman said, though Tesla’s quarter-to-date deliveries through May were still tracking down in the mid-teens from a year earlier. Goldman maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating and a $375 price target.

Chamath Says A Merger Is Coming

The Tesla-SpaceX merger talks have gained momentum after SpaceX’s record IPO and rapid AI expansion, with Chamath Palihapitiya predicting that Musk’s companies are entering a broader consolidation phase.

Palihapitiya pointed to SpaceX’s $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere, the company behind Cursor, as evidence of Musk’s dealmaking power, saying that SpaceX’s rising valuation effectively lowered the true cost of the deal. He called it “an incredible deal” and said Musk’s “business intellect is off the charts.”

“And now the consolidation phase will begin,” Palihapitiya said. “And we’re going to see Tesla and SpaceX merge. And it’s going to be glorious.” Musk has not dismissed the idea outright. Asked in a Forbes interview about eventually combining his companies, he said it would be “difficult” to comment given the public-company dynamics involved.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA was ‘extremely bearish’ amid ‘low’ message volume.

One user said, “$TSLA You never know - it might be the last time TSLA ever sees $400.”

Another user said, “$TSLA what is the bull case here honestly? Wouldn’t be surprised to see this below $300 soon, literally no reason to be excited here. Robotaxi is the biggest flop in history. Optimus is a bad joke. CEO is completely absent, just using these foolish holders to fund his space company. Most overpriced equity in the most expensive bubble of all time.”

So far this year, Tesla's stock has lagged its "Magnificent Seven" peers, making it the group's third-worst performer, down about 10%. 

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