Tesla Stock Pushes Toward Peak Levels Amid Musk Pay Drama — Analyst Doubts Robotaxi Hype

Tesla’s stock closed Wednesday at $442.79, less than $46 away from its record high, as chatter around the company’s robotaxi ambitions and CEO Elon Musk’s proposed $1 trillion pay package intensified ahead of its third-quarter delivery results, set to be released next week.

Gary Black, managing partner at The Future Fund LLC, said on X that while Tesla will likely achieve unsupervised autonomy, “so will a handful of others.” 

He argued Tesla’s robotaxi valuation is overstated by three to five times under capacity-driven models and should instead be based on total addressable market and market share. Black also projected third-quarter (Q3) deliveries at 470,000, well above Wall Street’s 433,000 consensus, and said hedge funds betting on a beat may unwind positions after the print.

Other brokerages have echoed his view that Q3 numbers will be stronger. UBS raised its forecast to 475,000 units, up from 431,000 previously and above the 462,890 delivered in the same period last year, though it warned of a 14% year-over-year drop in Q4 and kept a ‘Sell’ rating with a $215 target. 

Piper Sandler, meanwhile, lifted its Tesla price target to $500 from $400 and reiterated an ‘Overweight’ rating, calling Tesla its top idea in autonomous vehicles and robotics.

Competition in the space also sharpened after Alphabet’s Waymo launched Waymo for Business, a corporate ride-hailing program for employers, universities, and event organizers. 

The service delivers more than one million fully autonomous rides per month across San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Austin, and Atlanta, with nearly one in six riders using Waymo to commute. Expansion is planned for Miami in 2026, with testing underway in New York and Las Vegas and a partnership with Lyft in Nashville.

Tesla’s board has meanwhile urged shareholders to approve Musk’s new $1 trillion compensation package, which would award him up to 423.7 million shares over 10 years if performance milestones are met. 

Board Chair Robyn Denholm called Musk a “once-in-a-generation visionary” and said the package is “100% at risk” and fully tied to shareholder value creation.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Tesla was ‘bullish’ amid a 39% surge in 24-hour message volume.

One user said they were bullish on Tesla, noting that Elon Musk appeared to be delivering wins for the company every day.

Another user suggested Musk was attempting to push the stock higher to show that he could reach the thresholds tied to his proposed compensation package.

Tesla’s stock has risen 9.6% so far in 2025.

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