Tesla Stock Under Pressure Ahead Of Q1 Print: Musk's Massive SpaceX Plans Raise Fresh Investor Concerns

• Jefferies warned that Tesla’s plan to launch robotaxis across 25%-50% of U.S. markets this year appears “beyond reach.”
• Wedbush’s Dan Ives said investors are closely watching Tesla's $2 billion investment in xAI and potential exposure to SpaceX after the merger.
• SpaceX also disclosed rights to acquire AI coding startup Cursor for up to $60 billion. 

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is heading into its first-quarter (Q1) earnings report due after the markets close on Wednesday, facing mounting investor scrutiny as analysts warned that CEO Elon Musk’s rising ambitions at SpaceX could raise funding concerns if clarity around Tesla’s robotaxi rollout falls short.

TSLA stock declined nearly 2% on Tuesday, recording its second straight session of losses. 

SpaceX Questions Shadow Robotaxi Push

Jefferies said on Tuesday that Tesla’s plan to deploy robotaxi services across 25%-50% of potential U.S. markets by year-end appears “beyond reach,” adding that limited rollout visibility “may fuel concern about funding and raise the logic of an eventual merger with SpaceX.” The brokerage nevertheless raised its price target to $350 while maintaining a ‘Hold’ rating, still implying a 9% downside from current levels. 

Meanwhile, Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities said investors are expected to focus on the $20 billion in AI capital spending tied to Cybercab development, Semi production, and a new megafactory, auto-focused news outlet Teslarati noted on X.

Ives added that investors are also watching Tesla’s $2 billion investment in xAI and how that exposure could translate into its stake within SpaceX following the companies’ merger in February. He is also seeking clarity on which entity could fund the Terafab facility buildout and on Tesla’s conversion of the Model S/X plant into a manufacturing hub for the Optimus humanoid robot, expected to scale to one million units over time.

“We believe the Street is at a crossroads with Tesla as the bulls and bears debate how quickly the AI era will take shape over the coming year,” Ives said. 

SpaceX IPO Push Raises Stakes For Musk

Investor attention to Musk’s broader platform strategy has intensified as SpaceX prepares for what could be the largest IPO in history, targeting $75 billion at a valuation of about $1.75 trillion. The company is reportedly hosting Wall Street analysts this week for three days of briefings at Starbase and at its Tennessee data center infrastructure ahead of the listing.

The company has also apparently outlined stock-award incentives that could grant Musk tens of millions of additional shares if SpaceX’s market cap hits $6.6 trillion, tied partly to plans to build orbital AI infrastructure capable of delivering roughly 100 terawatts of processing capacity annually.

However, filings reportedly warned that the space-based AI data center initiatives, along with longer-term plans tied to lunar and interplanetary industrialization, rely on early-stage tech that may not prove commercially viable.

Late Tuesday, SpaceX also disclosed rights to acquire AI coding startup Cursor for up to $60 billion as part of efforts to boost its software capabilities following its merger with xAI.

Investors View SpaceX As AI Infra Bet

Prospectus excerpts also supposedly showed that Musk and insiders will retain voting control of SpaceX after listing through a dual-class share structure that limits outside shareholder influence.

Musk had reportedly increased his ownership stake in SpaceX last year by purchasing about $1.4 billion of employee shares ahead of the listing process. Separately, one institutional investor evaluating the IPO has supposedly been benchmarking SpaceX against AI infrastructure firms such as Palantir, GE Vernova and Vertiv rather than traditional aerospace peers following its merger with xAI.

Tesla Q1 Results In Focus

Tesla is scheduled to report its first-quarter results after markets close on Tuesday.

The company delivered 358,023 vehicles during the quarter, missing company-compiled consensus expectations of 365,645 vehicles. On the other hand, production reached 408,386 vehicles, leaving output ahead of deliveries by more than 50,000 units, the widest gap in at least four years.

Tesla-compiled consensus estimates point to revenue of $21.4 billion and operating income of about $541 million.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Tesla has been ‘extremely bullish’ in the week leading up to its earnings amid ‘normal’ message volume.

One user expects, “many upgrades tomorrow with over $500.0 price targets.”

Another user said, “I think there are a lot of positive things that are in the works for Tesla!!!  MAGA”

TSLA stock has risen 70% over the past year. 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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