Polymarket assigns Trump a 60% probability of defeating Democratic rival Kamala Harris, while Stocktwits polls indicate he is currently leading with 67% of the user votes.

Trump Media, Phunware and Rumble gain as prediction markets indicate Trump victory in 2024 US Election | Source: Wikimedia Commons

Prabhjote Gill·Stocktwits

Updated Jul 02, 2025 | 8:31 PM GMT-04

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Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. ($DJT) surged as much as 13% during mid-day trading on Monday, along with Phunware Inc. ($PHUN) and Rumble Inc. ($RUM), as prediction markets began favoring a Republican victory in the 2024 US election.

Polymarket currently gives Trump a 60% chance of winning against Democratic contender Kamala Harris, while Stocktwits polls show him leading with 67% of user votes.

Phunware’s stock rose by 7%, while Rumble stabilized after earlier losses, reflecting the growing optimism surrounding the former president’s campaign.

Screenshot 2024-11-04 135731.png — DJT Sentiment and Message Volume on Nov 4 as of 1:55 p.m. ET | Source: Stocktwits

Despite the surge in stock price, retail sentiment around Trump Media on Stocktwits is ‘bearish’ (39/100) even though there’s ‘high’ (63/100) chatter.

Uncertainty looms ahead of the 2024 US election as users speculate on early voting trends, contributing to mixed feelings among investors.

Trump Media had doubled in value this year with its stock gaining 102% so far in 2024.

Screenshot 2024-11-04 140040.png — Phunware Sentiment and Message Volume on Nov 4 as of 2:00 p.m. ET | Source: Stocktwits

Retail sentiment around Phunware shows a similar trend, resting ‘neutral’ (49/100) territory, despite the uptick in share price.

Phunware’s shares have surged 70% so far in 2024.

Screenshot 2024-11-04 140742.png — Rumble Sentiment and Message Volume on Nov 4 as of 2:10 p.m. ET | Source: Stocktwits

Among the three Trump-linked stocks, Rumble stands out in the ‘bullish’ (66/100) territory. The platform is recognized as the cloud service supporting Truth Social, the social media network founded by Trump Media.

Rumble’s stock has also gained in the run-up to the 2024 US Election with its shares up 33% so far this year.

For updates and corrections email newsroom@stocktwits.com.