TSLA Stock Rebounds Premarket After Q2 Rout — Cathie Wood Bought The Dip, Retail Influencer Sees SpaceX Merger Reveal In 3 Weeks

• Cathie Wood's Ark Invest bought $51.2 million worth of Tesla shares across four ETFs after Tesla's earnings-driven decline.
• Merz said a SpaceX merger announcement could come within two to three weeks, citing upcoming SpaceX lockup expirations.
• Musk acknowledged growing overlap between Tesla and SpaceX in the recent Q2 call, while saying any merger would require a formal process.

Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) rose 1% in premarket trading on Friday as Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment Management bought the post-earnings dip and fresh speculation over a potential SpaceX merger returned to the spotlight.

TSLA stock’s recovery followed a 15% plunge on Thursday after Tesla’s second-quarter results (Q2). The selloff extended the stock’s monthly decline to 24%, putting it on course for its worst monthly run since February.

Ark Invest Boosts Tesla Stake By Over $50M

Wood's Ark Invest potentially bought $51.2 million worth of Tesla shares (going by the closing price) across four ETFs on Thursday, according to the firm's daily trading disclosures. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) bought 98,782 shares, while the ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ) added 30,396 shares. The ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) and ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (ARKX) purchased 21,048 and 9,925 shares, respectively.

Ark’s purchases came after Tesla reported adjusted earnings of $0.33 per share, missing Wall Street’s $0.54 estimate. Revenue of $28.24 billion exceeded the $26.36 billion consensus, but rising spending on AI, robotics and autonomous vehicles pressured margins and pushed free cash flow negative.

Merger Watch: SpaceX Lockups In Focus 

Tesla influencer AleXandra Merz, who posts as “TeslaBoomerMama” on X, said a merger announcement could happen “anytime,” reiterating her estimate that it may arrive within the next two to three weeks. Merz tied the potential timing to SpaceX’s lockup schedule and said that the first window opens Aug.6, when 20% of eligible shares become sellable, excluding CEO Elon Musk’s holdings, which she noted remain locked until mid-June 2027.

Further restrictions are expected to expire from September through November, with all non-Musk lockups ending by Dec. 12, according to Merz. She estimated that consummating a merger could take seven to 12 months after an announcement. Merz has previously said that a merger of equals would be structured around Tesla and SpaceX’s negotiated relative values and not an arbitrary midpoint between their current market capitalizations. 

Tesla-SpaceX Merger Talk Intensifies 

Merger speculation intensified after Tesla addressed the possibility on its Q2 earnings call. Musk acknowledged “more and more overlap” with SpaceX, particularly around Terafab, but said that any combination would require a formal process. General Counsel Brandon Ehrhart added that the companies already have “numerous beneficial transactions,” including work involving Terafab and Digital Optimus.

Gene Munster raised his estimated probability of a merger over the next few years from 80% to 90%, citing potential integration across Starlink, Robotaxi connectivity, Grok, Optimus and Terafab. RBC Capital also highlighted expanding collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX through Terafab, Starlink, CyberCab connectivity and Digital Optimus, despite near-term margin pressure from higher Optimus and Robotaxi investment.

Meanwhile, Canaccord said it wants to see further progress toward a potential Tesla-SpaceX combination alongside stronger Robotaxi deployment and EV momentum. 

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA flipped to ‘bearish’ from ‘bullish’ levels before its Q2 results amid a 71% jump in 24-hour message volumes. 

One user said, “Tesla/spaceX.. getting married sooner than you think.”

Another user said, “$TSLA i buy every big dip I can. You think Elon doesn’t want the price to come down before he merges everything he owns. Long term”

So far this year, Tesla's stock has lagged its "Magnificent Seven" peers, making it the group's worst performer, down about 29%. Even so, Tesla continues to command a premium valuation, trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 170x, by far the highest multiple among the Magnificent Seven stocks. 

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