TSLA Overvalued? Fund Manager Demands Math on $3,000 Bull Targets

• With Tesla shares, the market has already baked in dominance in unsupervised autonomy and robotaxi services, he argued.
• Black says he likes Tesla as a company but not its valuation. 
• According to data from Koyfin, 23 of the 46 analysts covering TSLA rate it ‘Buy’ or higher, 17 rated it ‘Hold,’ and 6 rated it ‘Sell’ or ‘Strong Sell.’

Gary Black, Managing Partner of The Future Fund LLC, pushed back against both Tesla bears and sky-high bulls in a post on X Monday, arguing that while Tesla remains best positioned among automakers to capitalize on unsupervised autonomy, its current valuation already prices in far more success than the company has yet proven.

Black wrote that he is “far more aligned with $TSLA longs than shorts.” He acknowledged that as the efficacy of the company’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology continues to improve, Tesla has the clearest runway among Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) to exploit unsupervised autonomy over the next 12–18 months.

That said, Black expressed skepticism about the pace and scale of monetization. He questioned whether consumers will “en masse” rush to buy two-seat robotaxi vehicles without steering wheels or pedals if unsupervised ride-hailing is initially limited to just a few states. He also warned that Tesla bulls are underestimating competitors already operating at scale.

“GOOG, BIDU, PONY, WRD, and AMZN are already completing 1M paid robotaxi rides per week,” Black noted, adding that NVIDIA is actively offering its autonomous hardware and software stack to several OEMs.

With Tesla shares, the market has already baked in dominance in unsupervised autonomy and robotaxi services, he argued, without clear evidence that Tesla possesses the marketing muscle to win in what will be a crowded field.

“I like Tesla the company but not the valuation,” Black wrote. “For bulls who keep posting $2,500, $3,000, and even higher valuations, kindly show us the math.”

TSLA stock currently remains down sharply from its 2025 highs but well above 2024 lows.

Analyst Take Away

According to data from Koyfin, 23 of the 46 analysts covering TSLA rate it ‘Buy’ or higher, 17 rated it ‘Hold,’ and 6 rated it ‘Sell’ or ‘Strong Sell.’

The average 12-month price target on the stock is $416.45, implying a potential upside of about 10% from the last closing price.

Tesla’s AI Advancements

Earlier this month, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that Tesla will start rolling out unsupervised FSD, or a version of its driver assistance system that requires no oversight, starting “probably in the fourth quarter.” The company is currently making a push into AI and robotics with investments into autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots. Tesla is slated to start volume production of both its dedicated robotaxi offering called the Cybercab and the humanoid robot called Optimus this year.

However, Musk said during Tesla’s first-quarter earnings call that the rollout of robotaxis will be slow as the company is taking a “cautious approach.” Likewise, with unsupervised FSD for customer vehicles, the CEO said that it would be “difficult” to release the technology far and wide at once.

How Did Retail Traders React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around TSLA stayed within the ‘extremely bullish’ territory over the past 24 hours, while message volume remained at ‘high’ levels.

TSLA stock has gained 32% over the past 12 months. 

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