TSLA Stock Recovers To Close Nearly 2% Higher As SpaceX IPO Debuts

• Gary Black of The Future Fund said in a post on X that the IPO debut was always likely to weigh on TSLA in the near term.
• SpaceX president neither confirmed nor denied a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger on Friday, while noting “synergies” between the two companies. 
• According to a Stocktwits poll, in which more than 13,000 users took part, 46% traders believe that SpaceX will outperform the S&P 500 over the next 5 years.

Shares of Tesla Inc (TSLA) came under pressure intraday on Friday as Elon Musk’s SpaceX made its long-awaited public debut on the Nasdaq. However, the EV maker later pared its losses and closed 2% higher.

SPCX opened at around $150 — an 11% premium to the IPO price — and climbed as much as 30% higher in early trading, briefly pushing the company’s market capitalization above $2.2 trillion. The company closed its first day of trade up 19%. The debut cemented Musk’s position as the world’s richest person, with Forbes pinning the CEO’s real-time net worth at over $1 trillion.    

Overall, Tesla gained 4% this week, marking its best week since early May.

SpaceX Debut May Weigh On TSLA In Near Term, Says Fund Manager

Gary Black of The Future Fund said that the IPO debut was always likely to weigh on TSLA in the near term.

“I never understood the logic of $TSLA bulls’ arguments that a $SPCX IPO would somehow benefit $TSLA shares,” he said in a post on X. “As I suggested a few days ago, $TSLA shares should fall near-term ceteris paribus as SPCX debuts since the cash to pay for the record $75 billion $SPCX IPO has to come from somewhere, and the most likely source would be long duration stocks like TSLA (YTD $TSLA -18% vs NDX +11%).”

“When a hot new Mediterranean restaurant opens in Chicago and customers flock to it, it’s rarely good for neighboring restaurants,” he added.

Merger Speculation Intensifies

Black on Friday dismissed Tesla-SpaceX merger speculation as unfounded, noting that the stark differences in business models, total addressable markets and risk profiles between the two companies despite sharing the same CEO.

However, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives stated that “Tesla and SpaceX will likely merge over the next year.”

SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell offered a more measured take in a new interview. She acknowledged potential synergies and said a merger “might make Elon’s life a little easier,” adding, “There’s no question that there are synergies between Tesla and SpaceX and our futures definitely there’s a convergence of what we’re all trying to accomplish.”

“I’m focused on keeping the lights on here, keeping rockets in production, flying rockets, flying people, and critically providing broadband that don’t have access to that critical capability. I’m really focused on that. I’m not focused on that part of the future,” Shotwell said in an interview on CNBC, neither confirming nor dismissing the possibility.

Tesla-SpaceX Collaboration

Tesla holds a small financial stake in SpaceX. Following SpaceX's acquisition of Musk’s AI startup xAI, Tesla's previous $2 billion investment in xAI was converted into equity, resulting in Tesla owning nearly 19 million shares of SpaceX Class A common stock.

Beyond this, the two companies also collaborate closely, with Tesla’s upcoming Roadster expected to incorporate some of SpaceX’s technology to enable faster acceleration.

What’s Ahead For SPCX?

According to a Stocktwits poll, in which more than 13,000 users took part, 46% traders believe that SpaceX will outperform the S&P 500 over the next 5 years, while 54% believe otherwise. Tesla is also part of the benchmark index.

How Did TSLA, SPCX Retail Traders React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around TSLA jumped from ‘neutral’ to ‘bullish’ over the past 24 hours, while message volume remained at ‘normal’ levels.

Meanwhile, sentiment around SPCX  stayed in the ‘extremely bullish’ territory, coupled with ‘extremely high’ message volume.

A Stocktwits user highlighted that SpaceX made about $5 billion in losses in 2025 despite its high valuation.

Another user pinned the SPCX’s fair value at $60.

TSLA stock has fallen 7% this year.

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