UnitedHealth Stock In Spotlight Ahead Of Earnings: Retail Traders Bet On Recovery After ‘Kitchen-Sink’ Q2

• While the consensus EPS estimate suggests a decline from a year ago, revenue is expected to rise by more than 12% year over year.
• A retail user expected a “well-thought-out earnings call with a road to a bright future, no matter what the numbers say.”
• Stung by the headwinds, UnitedHealth stock is down more than 23% this year.

Healthcare services giant UnitedHealth, Inc. (UNH), which has been facing company-specific, macro, and geopolitical challenges, is scheduled to announce its quarterly results before the market opens on Tuesday.

Stung by the headwinds, UnitedHealth stock is down more than 23% this year.

What Street Expects For UNH’s Q3

According to the Fiscal.ai-compiled consensus estimates, UnitedHealth is expected to report adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.81 and revenue of $113.06 billion. While the consensus EPS estimate suggests a decline from the year-ago’s $3.57, revenue is expected to rise over 12% year-over-year (YoY).

In a mid-September note, Morgan Stanley analyst Erin Wright said he came away from an investor dinner with the UNH management team incrementally positive. He noted that the management team, led by CEO Stephen Hemsley, oozed conviction in a turnaround, driven by Medicare Advantage (MA) and Optum Health improvement.

Among the headwinds the company faces are higher medical loss ratios that have pressured margins, pricing, as well as operational mistakes in its MA and Affordable Care Act (ACA) businesses. It also faces criminal investigations into the MA billing practices, and the business practices of its Optimum unit, as well as other lawsuits for allegedly improperly denying claims.

The company withdrew its full-year 2025 guidance in mid-May, replaced Andrew Witty as CEO with former CEO Hemsley, citing unexpected medical costs and challenges with its Medicare strategy. It, however, reinstated the annual guidance when it released its second-quarter results in late July. The current outlook calls for revenue of $445.5 billion to $448 billion and adjusted EPS of at least $16.

How Retail Is Positioned For Q3 Results

Retail sentiment toward UnitedHealth stock flipped to ‘bullish’ by early Tuesday from ‘bearish’ a day ago. The message volume on the stream has picked up pace to ‘high’ levels.

A bullish user looked ahead to better performance after a “kitchen-sink” second quarter.

Another user expected a “well-thought-out earnings call with a road to a bright future no matter what the numbers say.” If the numbers come in better than expected, they see it as an added advantage.

Wall Street Lift Price Targets Ahead Of Q3 Print

Since the start of October, UnitedHealth’s stock has received a string of price target hikes, with the updated price targets ranging from $335 to $433, according to the Fly. While lifting its price target to $409 from $317 earlier this month, Jefferies analyst David Windley said he sees upside for MA margins in 2026, thanks to assertive group repricing efforts. The analyst has a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock.

Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of the UnitedHealth stock with a ‘Buy rating’ and $406 price target. While the firm believes that the managed care industry faces its most significant underwriting downturn in over 15 years, it recommended increased exposure to MA, factoring in a margin recovery phase beginning in 2026. 

After bumping up the price target to $430 from $300, Mizuho, which has an ‘Overweight’ rating, noted increased earnings visibility on key issues and rotation into the healthcare sector.

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