UPST Stock Craters Overnight After Big Q1 Miss — Retail Bulls Are Far From Shaken

• The company posted a 44% year-over-year growth in quarterly revenue, driven by a surge in loan originations. 
• Upstart’s total loan originations grew 77% YoY, with the total volume at about $3.4 billion. 
• Management attributed the decline in profit to seasonal headwinds, while CEO Paul Gu told investors that Upstart was not past its high-growth years.

Shares of AI lending platform Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) fell nearly 15% in Tuesday’s overnight trading after the company reported first-quarter (Q1) 2026 earnings that came in well below Wall Street expectations.

While Upstart’s revenue of $308 million beat consensus estimates, the company reported a loss per share of $0.07 compared to analysts’ projections of an earnings per share of $0.43 for the quarter, according to Fiscal.ai.

However, management attributed the decline in profit to seasonal headwinds and reiterated the company’s growth momentum. CEO Paul Gu told investors in a call that Upstart was not past its high-growth years.

“In recent decades, there’s been a growing trend for the fastest-growing companies to stay private. As a result, public companies are typically past their high-growth years. We believe Upstart is not,” Gu said. “As reflected in our three-year outlook of 35% annualized revenue growth, we expect to be one of the fastest multi-year compounders at our scale,” Gu added.

Upstart Q1 Snapshot

The San Mateo, California-based lending marketplace that connects consumers with banking partners, posted a 44% year-over-year growth in quarterly revenue, driven by a surge in loan originations, particularly in the auto and home loan segments.

Upstart also reiterated its full-year 2026 guidance, projecting total revenues of about $1.4 billion and adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization of $294 million. In addition, Upstart continues to expect total revenue growth of about 35% from 2025 to 2028.

The company also said that it expects continued growth in loan originations and margin improvements in the latter half of 2026.

Upstart’s Highlight Segments

Upstart’s total loan originations grew 77% YoY, with the total volume at about $3.4 billion. In its auto segment, originations grew more than 300% YoY while home loan originations grew about 250%, the company said.

“Auto retail was the standout, with originations up roughly 13 times year-over-year and nearly doubling sequentially, driven by our rapidly expanding active dealer network. Our work to reduce friction for dealers is paying off,” Gu said.

Additionally, more than one-quarter of the company’s home loans were fully automated, with the average time to close clocking in at six days from application to signing, compared to an industry average of roughly 40 days, Gu told investors.

“Home and auto have found their places in the market, and it’s time to make them profitable,” he said.

Retail Stance On UPST

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around UPST stock jumped from ‘neutral’ to ‘extremely bullish’ territory over the past 24 hours amid ‘extremely high’ message volumes.

One bullish user said UPST stock “will be worth double in the next few months.”

Another user cited the management’s guidance, adding that they were “not even worried, the rest is just noise designed to scare you from your shares.”

UPST stock has declined 32% so far in 2026.

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