US Gasoline Tops $4 After 3 Years – But Analyst Says Current Spike Could Fade Faster Than 2022 Crisis

• Since late February, U.S. gasoline prices have jumped by roughly $1.1 per gallon, according to GasBuddy.
• Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov expects gasoline prices to cool in the next few weeks.
• West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained more than 55% in March, putting it on track for its strongest monthly performance since May 2020.

U.S. gasoline prices surged past $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years, as the war in the Middle East and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to drive crude prices.

According to GasBuddy, an application to track real-time gasoline prices across the U.S., the national average shot past $4.018 per gallon, a level last seen in August 2022 due to the Russia-Ukraine War.

Source: GasBuddy

The sharp rise has been driven by the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, which has disrupted global energy flows. A key factor has been Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a route that accounts for nearly a fifth of the global oil shipments.

Wall Street Sees Shorter-Lived Spike 

Since late February, U.S. gasoline prices have jumped by roughly $1.1 per gallon. The United States Gasoline Fund LP (UGA) has gained more than 45% since the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran began on Feb. 28, 2026. It was up around 0.2% in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) shares have gained around 13% each since the war began. Both stocks are trading close to their all-time high.

Analysts expect the period of gasoline prices staying above $4 to be shorter than the spike seen during the Russia-Ukraine War in 2022.

“A sudden outbreak of ​war leads to a spike in US gasoline to $4 per gallon. That describes the current Iran conflict - and also Russia’s invasion ​of Ukraine in 2022. Then, as now, oil prices soared around the world, and emergency oil stockpiles were tapped. But we envision this crisis being ‌shorter: ⁠whereas gas stayed above $4 for 23 weeks in 2022, we expect prices starting to cool in the next few weeks,” Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov told Reuters on Tuesday.

How Did Retail Traders React?

One user said oil prices can only go back to pre-war levels if supply is increased beyond the Strait of Hormuz.

Another user said gasoline trading offers a clearer momentum play if the buying interest remains strong.

Vance Calls Price Increase A Temporary Blip

Earlier this month, Vice President JD Vance referred to high gas prices as “a temporary blip”.

“Look, gas prices are up, and we know they’re up, and we know that people are hurting because of it, and we’re doing everything we can to ensure that they stay lower. The president said this, and I certainly agree with it: This is a temporary blip,” Vance reportedly said.

President Donald Trump had also allayed fears, stating he expects gas prices to fall sharply once the conflict ends. Energy costs, including gasoline, could see a significant decline as conditions stabilize, Trump said.

U.S. Crude On Track For Biggest Monthly Gain In Over Five Years

Oil prices have rallied sharply since the conflict began, with West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbing more than 55% in March, putting it on track for its strongest monthly performance since May 2020.

At the same time, Brent crude futures have surged by around 48% this month and are reportedly heading for their biggest monthly gain since the futures contract was introduced in 1988.

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