US Import Prices Fall In March 2025, Marking First Monthly Decline Since September 2024

U.S. import prices decreased 0.1% in March following an increase of 0.2% in February, marking the first monthly drop since the index declined 0.4% in September 2024.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), lower prices for fuel imports more than offset higher prices for non-fuel imports in March.

BLS stated that import fuel prices decreased 2.3% in March following increases of 1.6% in February and 2.7% in January. The decline marked the largest monthly drop since the index fell 7.2% in September 2024.

Lower petroleum and natural gas prices drove the overall decline in import fuel prices in March, it said. Import petroleum prices declined 1.5% in March, while import natural gas prices fell 19.8% during the month.

Meanwhile, prices for non-fuel imports rose 0.1% for the second consecutive month in March. Notably, non-fuel import prices have not fallen on a monthly basis since a 0.2% drop in May 2024.

At the same time, U.S. export prices were unchanged in March following increases of 0.5% in February and 1.4% in January. The export prices have not fallen on a one-month basis since September 2024, the BLS said.

The index for agricultural export prices was unchanged in March, while the price index for nonagricultural exports decreased by 0.1%.

Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS, told Reuters that there will likely be a very painful and costly transition for the U.S. economy as Trump 2.0 tries to turn back the clock and return to making things in America. “Import prices are not adding much to inflation for now, but the future outlook remains very much in doubt and not in a good way,” he said.

Meanwhile, the ongoing tariff wars and the looming uncertainty around the Trump administration’s policies have sparked fears of a spike in inflation, casting doubts over the trajectory of the monetary policy in the coming months.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures traders have factored in three rate cuts in 2025, with the first rate reduction expected in June.

On Tuesday, benchmark indices traded in the green, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500, rising 0.44%, and the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ), which follows the Nasdaq Composite, gaining 0.66%.

Also See: PNC Financial Services Q1 2025 Earnings Surpass Estimates, But Revenue Falls Short Of Expectations

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