US tariffs pose major risk to India's growth: Crisil Intelligence

High tariffs imposed by the United States on Indian goods pose a major risk to the country’s growth, Crisil Intelligence said in its September report.

The tariffs will impact both Indian goods exports and investments, the report added.

However, domestic consumption, driven by benign inflation and rate cuts, is expected to support growth, it said.

The country’s GDP rose to a five-quarter high of 7.8% in the first quarter of fiscal 2025-26, up from 7.4% in the similar quarter in the previous year.

Nominal GDP growth, however, slowed to 8.8% from 10.8% during the same period, it added.

The report said consumer price index (CPI) inflation is likely to soften to 3.5% in the current fiscal from 4.6% in the previous year.

Healthy agricultural growth is expected to keep food inflation under check, though the impact of excess rain was yet to be fully assessed.

Lower crude prices and benign global commodity prices are expected to contain non-food inflation, the report added.

On the monetary policy, the report said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to implement one more rate cut this fiscal, followed by a pause.

The central bank’s monetary policy committee had cut the repo rate by 100 basis points between February and June 2025 and is now awaiting the full transmission of past cuts.

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