Wells Fargo Expects Tesla Deliveries To Dip Further In 2025, But Retail Says Downward Trend Is Over

Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan said on Tuesday that it now sees Tesla Inc.’s (TSLA) fundamentals coming in worse than it previously expected, pushing the stock down 1% in the pre-market session.  

The analyst said that the company’s second quarter (Q2) deliveries look flat as compared to the first quarter (Q1).

In the first quarter, Tesla reported deliveries of 336,681 units, marking a dip of nearly 13% from the corresponding quarter of 2024 and the company’s worst quarterly performance in at least two years.

Wells now expects full-year deliveries to be down 21% year-over-year.

In 2024, the company reported deliveries of around 1.79 million units, down from 1.81 million deliveries in 2023.

As per Wells Fargo’s current estimates, Tesla will report deliveries of around 1.4 million vehicles in 2025.

Weaker deliveries and pricing in conjunction with lower zero-emission vehicle credits and energy generation tariffs, will add pressure to Tesla’s earnings per share (EPS) and free cash flow, the firm added.

In the first quarter of 2025, Tesla reported earnings below Wall Street expectations after automotive segment revenue slumped 20% year-on-year. The company’s adjusted EPS for the period came in 40% lower at $0.27, while total revenue dropped 9% to $19.34 billion.

According to data from Finchat, analysts now expect the company to report Q2 adjusted EPS of $0.46 and total revenue of $23.51 billion. 

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around TSLA shifted from ‘bullish’ to ‘neutral’ territory over the past 24 hours while message volume fell from ‘high’ to ‘normal’ levels.

A Stocktwits user, however, opined that the short-term downtrend is over, and they are waiting for a catalyst to trigger a momentum rally.

TSLA stock is down 13% this year but up about 76% over the past 12 months.

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