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The bitcoin-to-gold ratio rebounded from recent lows, mirroring a pattern seen in the 2019-2020.

Summary Bitdeer is executing its vertical integration strategy, delivering record Q3 2025 revenue of $169.7M and rapid hashrate growth. Bitdeer now controls 71 EH/s of total hashrate under management and 55 EH/s of self-mining hashrate, surpassing a giant like MARA. Q4 2025 is on track to be Bitdeer’s third consecutive quarter of record revenue, driven by higher self-mining output. Beyond mining, near-term catalysts include the Ohio AI-ready site and formalized guidance for a $2B ARR, which could trigger a valuation rerating if execution remains on track. Last August, I argued that Bitdeer’s ( BTDR ) vertical integration thesis , which I have long held on to , was finally being validated. For most of the past two fiscal years, the market seemed skeptical that a mining firm could successfully design its own chips while also scaling infrastructure and executing a pivot to AI compute, thus BTDR traded at compressed valuation for most of 2023 and 2024 compared to peers because the R&D spend to build the proprietary hardware was not yet validated. Fast forward to today, the record revenues we are seeing shows that Bitdeer is delivering on its in-house chip strategy. Bitdeer has officially grown from a single-focus Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) miner to a diversified compute powerhouse. With the launch of its in-house chip and mining machine roadmap first laid out in 2024, the fourth release of the chip, SEAL04 chips, have passed its latest verification tests where they were reported to have achieved between 6 - 7 J/Th efficiency, with mass production targeted for Q1 2026 (as reported in Bitdeer's December 2025 production and operations update ). And the 570 MW AI-ready pipeline in Ohio slated to be energized in the second half of this year (out of a 3 GW global pipeline spread across the U.S., Norway, and Malaysia), are the near term catalysts to watch. While the broader market remains fixated on Bitcoin miners’ HPC pivots and lease deals at the moment, they could be missing the infrastructure arbitrage Bitdeer has. Bitdeer is currently sitting on a power portfolio twice the size of some HPC/AI peers in addition to in-house chip design, yet BTDR trades like a capital constrained pure play miner. It seems the market assumes Bitdeer is behind on AI because they haven't announced a multi-year hyperscaler lease deal yet. What the market might be missing is that Bitdeer is building vertical ownership and an “as-a-Service” AI business model here. Bitdeer is designing both the silicon (now at SEAL04 chips) and will be managing the infrastructure, and selling compute capacity directly to its clients, with potential for higher margins. Though it might look unattractive from the start because headline multi billion HPC deals have been the market’s obsession lately. We can attest to the tangible execution gains from the deployment of the SEAL chips and SEALMINER machines so far, which began as internal prototypes about two years ago. By using the SEALMINER A1 and A2 for self mining, Bitdeer avoided the high markups typically paid to hardware vendors like Bitmain. This has allowed the company to efficiently scale hashrate. Bitcoin miners' hashrate, Jan. 2026 (BitcoinMiningStock) The crux of it is that Bitdeer’s hashrate has surpassed that of a giant like Mara Holding ( RIOT ) lately, and Bitdeer now controls about 71 EH/s of total hashrate under management and about 55 EH/s of self mining hashrate. The direct driver of this level of scaling has been the vertical integration strategy, which has been my core thesis since I initiated coverage in June 2024 at around $7 stock price. There has been large scale deployment of SEALMINER A2 machines at the company. Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Change (%) Total Revenue $155.6M $169.7M +9.1% Self-Mining Rev $59.3M $130.9M +120.7% Gross Profit $12.8M $40.8M +218.8% Adjusted EBITDA $17.3M $43.0M +148.6% Thanks to those deployments, Bitdeer's Q3 2025 revenue was a record for the company at $169.7 million, and a 173.6% YoY increase. Remember that Q2 2025 revenue was also a record for the company at the time it was released. While total revenue only increased sequentially by ~9%, gross profit soared 218% sequentially from $12.8M to $40.8M, while adjusted EBITDA increased by 148% QoQ to reach $43 million. The main takeaway here is that Bitdeer beat Q2’s record top-line numbers sequentially by 9.1% but saw better operating leverage in profitability lines GAAP net loss was $266.7 million, of which $247.6 million of that loss came from the fair value change of derivative liabilities related to convertible senior notes. Sector Q2 2025 Q3 2025 % Change Self-Mining $59.3M $130.9M +120.7% SEALMINER Sales $69.5M $11.4M -83.6% Hosting (Gen & Member) $23.9M $22.4M -6.3% AI Cloud & HPC $1.3M $1.8M +38.5% Total Revenue $155.6M $169.7M +9.1% Bitdeer currently diversifies its revenue stream from four different sources, of which the self-mining segment remains the highest contributor to the top line to date. In Q3, self-mining revenue surged 120.7% sequentially. Self-mining increased from 38% of total revenue in Q2 to 77% of total revenue in Q3. The self-mining revenue surge, matches the 112% jump in self-mining capacity from 16.5 EH/s in Q2 to 35.0 EH/s at the end of Q3 (remember I mentioned that has since increased to 55.2 EH/s post Q3). Also note how revenue from SEALMINER sales dropped by 83% QoQ in Q3. This is where the whole vertical integration strategy starts to make sense. By being a hardware manufacturer, Bitdeer at its discretion, can dynamically route sales of the proprietary built SEALMINERs or prioritize deployment for its own self-mining hashrate for a particular period, as mining economics dictates. This is what Bitdeer did in Q3 (as the revenue composition shows); they prioritized in-house deployments of the SEALMINERS (reflected in the jump in exahash). The sequential results confirm that this pivot (prioritizing in-house self mining) was the right call in Q3. Despite the top-line only growing by single digits, the bottom-line metrics (gross profit and adjusted EBITDA) improved greatly because Bitdeer captured the entire value chain (you can verify the figures in the first table shared earlier in this piece). Basically, as Bitdeer deployed their own chips, their cost to generate each dollar of revenue dropped. This is typically unheard of for a miner scaling at this speed (doubling hashrate in a single quarter). Typically for miners, more hashrate means a linear increase in costs which temporarily compresses margins. Understanding Bitdeer's AI Pivot While a portion of the market might be awaiting a lease deal similar to that the likes of IREN ( IREN ), TeraWulf ( WULF ), among others, have seen lately, I’d say Bitdeer's AI pivot is a bit more ambitious. It is now clear that Bitdeer plans to operate a full-stack cloud model; the recent NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 clusters deployment in Malaysia earlier this month points towards that strategy. Bitdeer didn’t announce a leasing partner for the Malaysia site, but rather deployed the NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 infrastructure directly. ​Bitdeer is an Nvidia ( NVDA ) cloud partner, and being an Nvidia cloud partner means Bitdeer has been vetted to deliver full-stack NVIDIA infrastructure on the hardware, software, and architectural layers. Bitdeer achieved the status of Preferred Cloud Service Provider [CSP] in the NVIDIA Partner Network in November 2023. This partnership is the backbone of the $2 billion ARR management targets. What I believe the market might be missing in this AI pivot is that Bitdeer's effective vertical integration through SEAL chips and miners gives them lots of potential for cash flow from mining to fund these AI purchases without needing to lean on a tech giant for a multi-billion dollar lease deal to validate their strategy. As the results in Q3 and subsequent operational updates have shown, the expansion in gross margins is on a scale much higher than revenue growth, and between the aggressive ramp-up in hashrate and the potential to achieve some of the lowest efficiencies (J/Th) when SEAL04 chips launch soon, the favorable economics of seeing the top-line accelerate while gross margin accelerate even higher is bound to continue. Potential Near-Term Catalysts For BTDR When the Q4 report drops in February, it will likely be the definitive proof of the vertical integration strategy's success. At ~55.2 EH/s currently, and based on the October to December 2025 monthly operations updates, in which 511 BTC was self-mined in October, 526 BTC in November, and 636 BTC in December, revenue from self-mining alone is expected to be ~$160 million (at ~$95,000 average BTC spot price in Q4). Given the higher hashrate and BTC production jump in Q4, I believe Q4 is on track to be Bitdeer's third consecutive quarter of record revenue and sequential revenue growth. I also anticipate management to provide guidance for full year 2026 for active AI cloud revenue potential. In both the last September and October production updates, management reiterated the aim at a $2 billion plus ARR, but if management formalizes the path to that $2 billion ARR target via the Ohio site with clearer near term milestones that the market can understand and will see as feasible, I believe the Bitcoin mining discount currently depressing the stock will begin to evaporate. If it Goes According to Plan, How Will BTDR be Valued? I believe if the 200 MW target for AI workload is reached later this year and the path to the $2 billion ARR becomes more visible, BTDR could command a premium compared to peers who have signed lease deals only in their HPC/AI pivot. Valuation could rerate toward premium, more like pure play AI cloud companies like CoreWeave ( CRWV ) or Nebius ( NBIS ). CoreWeave currently trades around 9.3x sales. If we apply even a conservative 5x-6x multiple to Bitdeer’s projected $2 billion ARR, the AI business alone would be worth $10 billion – $12 billion, more than 3x the company's current total market cap of ~$3.3 billion. Though I expect BTDR to always have a slight discount compared to CRWV or NBIS, because the market will always likely factor in risks from the Bitcoin mining segment in the company's sum-of-the-parts valuation. Risks and Takeaway The biggest risk to this vertical integration and AI pivot theses is execution speed. Bitdeer already faces a class action lawsuit from a faction of investors regarding SEALMINERS A4 and SEAL04 chip delays, thus management must deliver the Ohio site on schedule. Any delay in the Q3 2026 power-up target would give the bears a reason to keep the miner discount firmly in place. BTDR isn't being priced yet like an AI focused cloud provider with potential for high margin recurring ARR. The AI pivot differs from most Bitcoin mining peers. Bitdeer targets a full stack cloud model where it will own virtually everything, including the customer relationships. Back to back record revenue and the rise in hashrate to become a top miner in terms of mining capacity, surpassing a giant like RIOT proves the vertical integration thesis is still intact.

Tron Founder Justin Sun appears to be aligning Tron with Binance to signal confidence in Bitcoin during market stress.

What's next for BTC amid heightened uncertainty?

Bitcoin traded at $82,300 on 30 January 2026, its lowest level in two months. Speculation that Kevin Warsh will lead the Federal Reserve drove the selloff.

A $200 billion market capitalization plummet sent investors reeling in the 24 hours between January 29 and January 30 as the total valuation of cryptocurrencies crashed from $2.96 trillion to $2.76 trillion. Total cryptocurrencies market capitalization one-week chart. Source: TradingView The latest collapse comes after a period of volatility and frequent downward movements that characterized the last days of 2026’s first month. The latest drop came as various risk factors have been accumulating at an accelerated pace. Why cryptocurrencies are down today In the world of finance, the struggle between the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and President Donald Trump appears to be nearing its January culmination as the central banker is facing a criminal investigation, and the commander-in-chief is expected to name the likely next head of America’s national bank in the first week of February. Also on the domestic front, an increasingly likely government shutdown on January 31 has been weighing heavily on risk assets. Specifically, the U.S. Congress is expected to once again cut funding for the Federal Government over disagreements pertaining to the funding of the United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The legislative spat came after what some lawyers described as state-sanctioned murder in the form of the killing of a protester and a Veterans Affairs (VA) nurse in Minneapolis. International risks have also been mounting. While President Trump’s latest escalation of the 60-year-long blockade of Cuba has drawn much attention on the evening of January 29, the more long-term – and likely more impactful – development has been the military buildup many suspect is the lead-up to another attack on Iran. Risk assets are especially susceptible to conflict in the Persian Gulf, given how critical the Strait of Hormuz – a narrow waterway many believe Iran is easily able to close – is for the global oil supply and, by extension, the global economy. Latest crypto crash deepens the late 2025 downturn Elsewhere, while the recent domestic and international developments have, without much doubt, helped trigger the latest downturn, it fits within a broader pattern seen in the cryptocurrency market since late 2025. Specifically, after many digital assets – spearheaded by Bitcoin ( BTC ) at approximately $125,000 – hit record highs in October, an overall downtrend has taken over the sector. Indeed, while the decline has been relatively slow, multiple blockchain analysts have concluded that the traditional 4-year cycle may now be defunct. For example, the popular on-chain expert on X , Ali Martinez, estimated that Bitcoin could hit its cycle low – possibly near $38,000 – as soon as October 2026. Bitcoin erases $110 billion in a day Looking at BTC in particular, the bearish forecasts are appearing increasingly likely. Out of the $200 billion erased from the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin accounts for some $110 billion, considering its valuation dropped from approximately $1.76 trillion to about $1.65 trillion within just 24 hours. Bitcoin market capitalization one-week chart. Source: TradingView The movement – which led BTC to its press time price of $82,301 – means the world’s premier cryptocurrency fell under the previously-reliable support zone near $85,000, constituted by the 100-day moving average ( MA ). Bitcoin’s next move could be determined by whether it moves toward its next support just above $80,000 or manages a breakout above the nearest resistance just past $88,000. The uncertainty is exacerbated by the likely persistence of external risk factors that are likely to continue generating headwinds – and two possible shocks in the weekend of January 31 and February 1 – and the tailwinds from the fact that BTC might now be seen as an attractive buy due to its lowered price. Featured image via Shutterstock The post Crypto market wipes out $200 billion in a day appeared first on Finbold .

BTC could drop to as low as $50,000 in the worst-case scenario after BTC price failed to hold the important $84,000 support level.

The shift takes Binance’s insurance-style fund out of US dollar-pegged assets and into Bitcoin within 30 days, raising questions about user protection.