DBA

Invesco DB Agriculture Fund

The Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) ETF surged in April, driven by a red-hot rally in commodity futures, which caught the attention of professional traders. This move signals rising inflation, challenging Fed policy, and revealing trading opportunities to the informed. We will review the forces behind the rally, its implications for inflation, and ideas for speculators to capitalize on this price move.

Soft commodities were the best-performing sector of the asset class in 2024, posting an over 58% gain. They also led in 2023, with an over 24% increase. Over the past two years, cocoa, coffee, and frozen concentrated orange juice futures reached record highs, with cotton and sugar rising to multi-year highs. However, the cure for high commodity prices is those high prices, and the softs sector led the asset class on the downside in Q1 2025.

Historically, a predictable but often overlooked trend impacts hog prices, creating risks and opportunities for traders. From February through May, prices take a seasonal dip as an influx of hogs hits the market, driven by the fall pig crop reaching market weight. But supply alone isn't the only factor—weather conditions, growth rates, and shifting demand all play a role in this annual price movement. So, what exactly will contribute to this spring slump, and how can you use it to your advantage?