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Reports that OpenAIs annualized revenue run rate was well below previously signaled levels rattled AI-linked tech and weighed on QQQ, raising concerns about AI demand and the returns on heavy investment. Traders are split between viewing the selloff as an overreaction amid differing revenue calculations and seeing it as a warning that AI-heavy valuations are vulnerable.

Bitcoin is the world's first decentralized cryptocurrency, created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto. It enables peer-to-peer electronic cash transactions without intermediaries like banks or governments, operating on a blockchain secured by Proof of Work mining and the SHA-256 cryptographic algorithm.   With a fixed supply cap of 21 million coins and programmatic halvings every four years that reduce miner rewards, Bitcoin is designed as a deflationary digital asset often called "digital gold." Its value stems from solving the double-spending problem without trusted intermediaries, creating the first truly scarce digital asset with censorship resistance and permissionless access that no government, corporation, or individual can control.  Bitcoin operates as a decentralized peer-to-peer network where transactions are recorded on a public ledger called the blockchain, distributed across thousands of computers globally. Transactions are grouped into blocks added approximately every 10 minutes through mining, where specialized computers compete to solve complex mathematical puzzles.   Bitcoin has achieved mainstream adoption through multiple vectors. The January 2024 SEC approval of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs opened Bitcoin investment to traditional finance participants, and corporations like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) are using Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset to protect against currency debasement, offering MSTR holders amplified exposure to Bitcoin.   The Bitcoin ecosystem continues to evolve with innovations like Ordinals, which emerged in January 2023 to enable NFT-like functionality directly on Bitcoin, and BRC-20 tokens, an experimental standard for creating fungible tokens using Ordinal inscriptions. BTCFi (Bitcoin Finance) represents emerging financial applications extending beyond Bitcoin's traditional role, with protocols like Babylon allowing Bitcoin holders to stake BTC to secure Proof of Stake chains.

Bitcoin

Bitcoins sharp pullback and break below key support levels dominate the discussion, with traders pointing to leveraged-position liquidations and broader market jitters. Bears warn of further downside, while dip buyers view the selloff as a shakeout and look for a rebound.

Applied Digital Corp. is a technology company, which engages in the provision of development and operation of data centers which provide computing power. It operates through the Data Center Hosting Business and HPC Hosting Business segments. The Data Center Hosting Business segment provides energized infrastructure services to crypto mining customers. The HPC Hosting Business segment focuses on the designing, constructing, and operating data centers tailored to support high power density applications like HPC and AI. The company was founded by Wesley Carl Cummins and Jason Zhang in May 2001 and is headquartered in Dallas, TX.

Applied Digital Corporation

Applied Digitals quarterly results and growth outlook drew attention, but the stocks post-earnings strength faded as traders weighed strong revenue growth and hyperscaler demand against debt, profitability, and buildout costs. Many blamed broader pressure on AI data-center stocks from rising yields and a risk-off market, while others argued the results showed the business was executing well.

Cipher Digital, Inc. operates as a Bitcoin mining ecosystem in the United States. The firm is developing a cryptocurrency business. The company was founded in 2021 and is headquartered in New York, NY.

Cipher Digital Inc.

Cipher is selling off with other AI data-center and crypto-mining stocks amid higher-yield and broader risk-off concerns, with traders pointing to financing costs and weak sector momentum. Bulls view the decline as a buying opportunity and say its AI-infrastructure contracts remain intact, while bears question valuations and the ability to fund expansion.

IREN Ltd. is a vertically integrated data center business powering the future of Bitcoin, AI and beyond with renewable energy. It is strategically located in renewable-rich, fiber-connected regions across the US and Canada. IREN’s large-scale, grid-connected facilities are purpose-built for the next generation of power-dense computing applications. The company was founded by Daniel Roberts and William Roberts on November 6, 2018, and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.

IREN Ltd.

IREN Limited

IRENs selloff is being linked to SemiAnalysiss allegations of reliability problems at its legacy British Columbia data centers, alongside broader weakness in AI infrastructure and neocloud stocks amid concerns about high borrowing costs. Traders disagree over whether the report signals real execution risks or is a short-driven hit piece; some are buying the dip while others cite operational and financing concerns.

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Reports that OpenAIs annualized revenue was below previously signaled drove fears that AI-related spending and valuations may be vulnerable, weighing on tech-heavy stocks and SPY. Traders debated whether the news signaled a broader AI bubble unwind or an overreaction, with some pointing to rotation into defensive names and small caps while others bought the dip.

Direxion Shares ETF Trust - Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF

Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares

An AI-related selloff is dominating the discussion, with traders linking weakness in tech and semiconductors to reports that OpenAIs annualized revenue was lower than previously indicated. Some see the drop in SOXL, a leveraged semiconductor ETF, as a buying opportunity, while others warn that it may signal a broader AI-trade correction.

Palantir Technologies, Inc. engages in the business of building and deploying software platforms that serve as the central operating systems for its customers. It operates through the Commercial and Government segments. The Commercial segment focuses on customers working in non-government industries. The Government segment is involved in providing services to customers that are the United States government and non-United States government agencies. Its platforms are widely used in areas such as defense, intelligence, healthcare, energy, and financial services, supporting data integration, large-scale analytics, and operational decision-making. The company was founded by Alexander Ceadmon Karp, Peter Andreas Thiel, Stephen Cohen, Joseph Lonsdale, and Nathan Dale Gettings in 2003 and is headquartered in Aventura, FL.

Palantir Technologies Inc - Ordinary Shares - Class A

Palantir Technologies Inc

Goldman Sachs upgrade of Palantir to Buy, citing expanding demand for sovereign AI and customized applications, is the main catalyst behind the renewed push toward record territory. Bulls welcome the endorsement and expect further gains, while skeptics argue the valuation is stretched and question whether the analyst upgrade can sustain the rally.

Cerebras Systems, Inc. engages in the designing and provision of processors for artificial intelligence (AI) training and inference. Its products include inference, Wafer Scale Engine, AI supercomputers, AI model services, cloud, systems, and processors. The company was founded by Sean Lie, Andrew D. Feldman, Gary Lauterbach, Michael James, and Jean Philippe Fricker in 2015 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, CA.

Cerebras Systems Inc - Ordinary Shares - Class A

Cerebras Systems Inc

OpenAI revenue concerns are weighing on AI and tech shares, with traders linking Cerebras decline to its close OpenAI relationship and questioning how much the news could affect demand. The discussion also reflects ongoing concerns about the stocks high valuation and upcoming share unlocks, while some traders view the selloff as a buying opportunity.

Ethereum is a global, open-source platform for decentralized applications. In other words, it is a decentralized blockchain platform that enables developers to build and deploy smart contracts and applications without central authority control. Unlike Bitcoin, which primarily functions as digital currency, Ethereum operates as a programmable global computer where developers can create any type of decentralized service.   The platform hosts over $14 billion in DeFi applications with hundreds of thousands of active users across financial protocols, NFT marketplaces, and gaming platforms. Its transition to Proof of Stake in September 2022 reduced energy consumption by over 99%, addressing environmental concerns while strengthening network security.  The network operates through thousands of independent validator nodes that process transactions and execute smart contracts on the Ethereum Virtual Machine. Smart contracts are self-executing programs written in Solidity that automatically carry out agreements when conditions are met, eliminating intermediaries like banks or brokers.   Validators stake ETH as collateral to propose and validate blocks, earning rewards for honest participation while facing penalties for malicious behavior. The EIP-1559 upgrade introduced a dynamic base fee mechanism that burns ETH with each transaction, creating deflationary pressure during high network activity when more ETH is burned than issued to validators.  Vitalik Buterin proposed Ethereum in 2013, but seven co-founders helped build it, including Gavin Wood who created Solidity and the EVM technical specification, and Joseph Lubin who founded ConsenSys. The project launched in July 2015 after raising over $18 million through crowdfunding, quickly becoming the largest blockchain developer community. Major milestones include the 2020 Beacon Chain launch, the 2021 London hard fork implementing fee burning, and the 2022 Merge to Proof of Stake.   Ether (ETH) serves multiple functions: paying transaction fees (gas), staking to secure the network and earn 3-5% annual yields, serving as collateral in DeFi protocols, and purchasing NFTs and digital assets. The asset is increasingly adopted by traditional institutions, with publicly traded companies adding ETH to corporate treasuries to generate staking yields while maintaining blockchain exposure, and in 2024, the SEC approved spot Ethereum ETFs, allowing traditional investors to gain exposure through conventional brokerage accounts.  Ethereum's roadmap focuses on dramatically increasing transaction capacity to over 100,000 per second, reducing confirmation times, and enhancing decentralization while maintaining security against future threats like quantum computing.

Ethereum

Ethereum is drawing attention amid a sharp pullback alongside a broader crypto selloff, with traders pointing to liquidations of leveraged positions and lost technical support. The community is split between viewing the move as a leverage flush and buying opportunity and warning that it could mark a deeper correction.

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Hold rates steady

Cut 25 bps

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Fed decision day is here - Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting with markets pricing a hold at 3.50%-3.75% but watching for a hawkish shift. Vote on what you expect to be decided today, then drop your prediction for the first rate cut or hike in the comments.

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