Brief USA: Ghana Cocoa Recovery Faces Elevated Harmattan Risk and more
In this briefing: Ghana Cocoa Recovery Faces Elevated Harmattan Risk Funds Are Influencing Crude Oil Prices at the Margin, But Are Playing a Smaller Role Than Usual Have Geopolitical Realignments Triggered Another Commodity Supercycle? Janus Living (JAN US): Post-IPO Inclusion in US & Global Indices The Graphite Reset: What’s Fuelling the Rally in HEG and Graphite India? 1. Ghana Cocoa Recovery Faces Elevated Harmattan Risk Ghana's actively producing cocoa base has expanded heading into the 2024/25 season, but the Harmattan season bearing down on it is severe and the recovery was uneven. Treefera's 2024/25 prediction identifies 2,669,370 ha of actively producing cocoa, a 6% expansion on the El Niño pressured 2023/24 Treefera cocoa area of 2,518,670 ha. As of the end of January 2025, ~90 days into the Harmattan window, the Treefera Weather Stress Score stands at 0.78 on a scale where 1.0 represents maximum historical stress. 2. Funds Are Influencing Crude Oil Prices at the Margin, But Are Playing a Smaller Role Than Usual The CFTC data reveal that funds continue to play a role in price determination at the margin, as evidenced by day-to-day price volatility.