In this briefing: Ghana Cocoa Recovery Faces Elevated Harmattan Risk Funds Are Influencing Crude Oil Prices at the Margin, But Are Playing a Smaller Role Than Usual Have Geopolitical Realignments Triggered Another Commodity Supercycle? Janus Living (JAN US): Post-IPO Inclusion in US & Global Indices The Graphite Reset: What’s Fuelling the Rally in HEG and Graphite India? 1. Ghana Cocoa Recovery Faces Elevated Harmattan Risk Ghana's actively producing cocoa base has expanded heading into the 2024/25 season, but the Harmattan season bearing down on it is severe and the recovery was uneven. Treefera's 2024/25 prediction identifies 2,669,370 ha of actively producing cocoa, a 6% expansion on the El Niño pressured 2023/24 Treefera cocoa area of 2,518,670 ha. As of the end of January 2025, ~90 days into the Harmattan window, the Treefera Weather Stress Score stands at 0.78 on a scale where 1.0 represents maximum historical stress. 2. Funds Are Influencing Crude Oil Prices at the Margin, But Are Playing a Smaller Role Than Usual The CFTC data reveal that funds continue to play a role in price determination at the margin, as evidenced by day-to-day price volatility.

In this briefing: Funds Are Influencing Crude Oil Prices at the Margin, But Are Playing a Smaller Role Than Usual Have Geopolitical Realignments Triggered Another Commodity Supercycle? Janus Living (JAN US): Post-IPO Inclusion in US & Global Indices The Graphite Reset: What’s Fuelling the Rally in HEG and Graphite India? NCR Atleos: From High-Conviction Holding to Merger Arbitrage 1. Funds Are Influencing Crude Oil Prices at the Margin, But Are Playing a Smaller Role Than Usual The CFTC data reveal that funds continue to play a role in price determination at the margin, as evidenced by day-to-day price volatility. However, compared to history, their overall influence has been substantially less during the war as, not unexpectedly, physical market tightness dominates. In addition, smaller players in the futures market have been unceasingly influential relative to the largest hedge funds and major financial institutions. 2. Have Geopolitical Realignments Triggered Another Commodity Supercycle?

In this briefing: HSI Index Earning Revision (Mar): Oil and Tech Have Geopolitical Realignments Triggered Another Commodity Supercycle? HSCEI Index Earning Revision (Mar): Tech De-Ratings Janus Living (JAN US): Post-IPO Inclusion in US & Global Indices The Graphite Reset: What’s Fuelling the Rally in HEG and Graphite India? 1. HSI Index Earning Revision (Mar): Oil and Tech We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month. We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision. We highlighted EPS revision on ALIBABA, XIAOMI, HSBC, MEITUAN, LI AUTO, CNOOC. 2. Have Geopolitical Realignments Triggered Another Commodity Supercycle? Current events in the Middle East form part of a broader geopolitical realignment where countries seek to secure reliable supplies of strategically important commodities. Geopolitics can support another commodity supercycle. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, there were three commodity supercycles, with an average 32 year duration.

In this briefing: Have Geopolitical Realignments Triggered Another Commodity Supercycle? HSCEI Index Earning Revision (Mar): Tech De-Ratings Janus Living (JAN US): Post-IPO Inclusion in US & Global Indices The Graphite Reset: What’s Fuelling the Rally in HEG and Graphite India? Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Mar 27th): Intouch, Bangkok Dusit, Central Pattana 1. Have Geopolitical Realignments Triggered Another Commodity Supercycle? Current events in the Middle East form part of a broader geopolitical realignment where countries seek to secure reliable supplies of strategically important commodities. Geopolitics can support another commodity supercycle. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, there were three commodity supercycles, with an average 32 year duration. The most recent was attributable to China's unprecedented dash to industrialise in two decades. A new commodity supercycle may have begun, driven by energy transformation and geopolitical realignment. Supply responses may be slower due to underinvestment and tougher regulatory regimes for new operations. 2.

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Only FMCG and media bucked the trend. Analyst expects near-term consolidation between 24,660 and 24,890 before the next directional cue.

The analyst has highlighted four midcap names showing bullish patterns with strong volume and RSI support.

Bajaj Auto, HEG, and Graphite India gained, while Protean eGov and Vodafone Idea sharply declined.

Resonac’s decision to shut graphite electrode units in China and Malaysia has ignited a rally in Indian peers HEG and Graphite India. Analyst sees this as a structural shift that boosts earnings potential.