India’s retail inflation accelerates to 2.07% in August
India’s retail inflation accelerated to 2.07% in August, as food prices inched up. Annual retail inflation quickened from a revised 1.61% in July and was above a Reuters poll of 2.1%. Commentary: Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Mumbai The August headline CPI inflation has come inline with expectations further reinforcing the underlying benign trajectory. Going ahead, the one-time GST cut impact is likely to play out in the year ahead offsetting, in part, the impact of adverse base effect into FY27. While we see a pause by the RBI in the upcoming policy, we do see some scope for rate cuts worth 25-50 bp opening up from December policy if downside risks to growth materialise and the Fed moves ahead with aggressive rate cuts. Garima Kapoor, economist, institutional equities, Elara Securities, Mumbai Sluggishness in food prices amid benign fuel and clothing inflation supported modest print on headline CPI at 2.1% - exactly in line with our expectation. Subdued headline inflation, along with an expected downside to the retail inflation owing to GST rate cuts, suggests that there is a further downside to the RBI’s CPI projection.