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Bitcoin is the world's first decentralized cryptocurrency, created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto. It enables peer-to-peer electronic cash transactions without intermediaries like banks or governments, operating on a blockchain secured by Proof of Work mining and the SHA-256 cryptographic algorithm.   With a fixed supply cap of 21 million coins and programmatic halvings every four years that reduce miner rewards, Bitcoin is designed as a deflationary digital asset often called "digital gold." Its value stems from solving the double-spending problem without trusted intermediaries, creating the first truly scarce digital asset with censorship resistance and permissionless access that no government, corporation, or individual can control.  Bitcoin operates as a decentralized peer-to-peer network where transactions are recorded on a public ledger called the blockchain, distributed across thousands of computers globally. Transactions are grouped into blocks added approximately every 10 minutes through mining, where specialized computers compete to solve complex mathematical puzzles.   Bitcoin has achieved mainstream adoption through multiple vectors. The January 2024 SEC approval of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs opened Bitcoin investment to traditional finance participants, and corporations like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) are using Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset to protect against currency debasement, offering MSTR holders amplified exposure to Bitcoin.   The Bitcoin ecosystem continues to evolve with innovations like Ordinals, which emerged in January 2023 to enable NFT-like functionality directly on Bitcoin, and BRC-20 tokens, an experimental standard for creating fungible tokens using Ordinal inscriptions. BTCFi (Bitcoin Finance) represents emerging financial applications extending beyond Bitcoin's traditional role, with protocols like Babylon allowing Bitcoin holders to stake BTC to secure Proof of Stake chains.

Bitcoin

Reports of a major Binance security breach and suspended withdrawals are driving Bitcoins selloff and debate over crypto-exchange security. Bears fear a broader loss of confidence and further downside, while bulls argue the incident concerns an exchange rather than Bitcoin itself and view the pullback as a buying opportunity.

Intel Corp. engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of computer products and technologies. It delivers computer, networking, data storage, and communications platforms. The firm operates through the following segments: Client Computing Group (CCG), Data Center and AI (DCAI), Intel Foundry Services (IFS), and All Other. The CCG segment consists of platforms designed for notebooks, 2-in-1 systems, desktops, tablets, phones, wireless and wired connectivity products, and mobile communication components. The DCAI segment delivers solutions to cloud service providers and enterprise customers, along with silicon devices for communications service providers and high-performance computing customers. The IFS segment refers to full stack solutions created from the foundry industry ecosystem. The All Other segment represents results from other non-reportable segments and corporate-related charges. The company was founded by Robert Norton Noyce and Gordon Earle Moore on July 18, 1968, and is headquartered in Santa Clara, CA.

Intel Corp.

Intel Corp

Intels weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter outlook, persistent PC weakness and manufacturing constraints are driving a sharp post-results selloff, despite stronger data-center and AI growth. Traders are divided between calling the decline an overreaction and buying the dip, and viewing the guidance as a sign of continued weakness.

Sandisk Corp. engages in the development, manufacture, and provision of storage devices and solutions based on NAND flash technology. Its products include solid state drives, memory cards, and USB flash drives. The company was founded on February 5, 2024 and is headquartered in Milpitas, CA.

Sandisk Corp

SanDisks strong quarterly results, higher outlook and planned 8-for-1 split have been met with a selloff, leaving traders debating the disconnect. Bulls blame broader chip and AI-sector weakness and profit-taking after a sharp rally, while bears point to cyclical memory-pricing risks and high expectations.

Amazon.com, Inc. is a multinational technology company, which engages in the provision of online retail shopping services. It operates through the following segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). The North America segment offers retail sale of consumer products, including from sellers, advertising, and subscriptions services through North America-focused online and physical stores. The International segment focuses on retail sale of consumer products, including sellers, advertising, and subscription services through internationally focused online stores. The AWS segment is composed of global sales of computers, storage, databases, and other services for start-ups, enterprises, government agencies, and academic institutions. The company was founded by Jeffrey P. Bezos in July 1994 and is headquartered in Seattle, WA.

Amazon.com Inc.

Amazon.com Inc

Amazons quarterly earnings miss and heavy AI infrastructure spending, which pushed free cash flow sharply negative, have fueled the selloff. Traders are split between concern that spending may not earn adequate returns and optimism that accelerating AWS growth will justify the investment.

Reddit, Inc. operates an entertainment, social networking, and news website where registered community members can submit content. The firm provides online news services where users can select and rank web content. It also offers a personalized filter on the day's story, using previous votes to determine what new things the user might like to read. The company was founded by Steven Ladd Huffman and Alexis Ohanian on June 23, 2005 and is headquartered in San Francisco, CA.

Reddit Inc. - Ordinary Shares - Class A

Reddit Inc

Reddits shares are under pressure after its quarterly results beat expectations but its next-quarter revenue outlook came in below forecasts, alongside warnings of declining search referrals and a planned logged-in-only experience. Traders are divided between viewing the selloff as an overreaction to strong results and worrying that weaker traffic, user growth, and the login change could undermine future growth.

BNB is the native utility token of the BNB Chain ecosystem, acting as a multi-chain asset that powers decentralized applications and facilitates value exchange across its network. It serves as the primary asset for paying transaction gas and smart contract deployment fees while providing users with tiered fee discounts on the Binance exchange. The project’s main value proposition lies in its unified multi-chain architecture, which integrates a smart contract platform, a Layer 2 scaling solution, and a decentralized data storage network into a cohesive settlement and data availability layer.  The network operates on a Proof of Staked Authority consensus mechanism, utilizing a group of 21 active validators known as the Cabinet to verify transactions and produce blocks every 3 seconds. Validators are elected daily based on the amount of BNB staked or delegated to them, and the system employs fast finality and slashing penalties to maintain security and integrity. To manage its long-term economy, the project uses a programmatic dual-burn strategy that permanently removes tokens through real-time fee destruction and quarterly buybacks.  Launched in 2017 by the Binance platform, the project initially distributed 50% of its 200 million token supply to the public, while the founding team received 40% and angel investors were allocated 10%. Though it began as a token on the Ethereum network, it eventually migrated to its own autonomous architecture that remains fully compatible with the Ethereum Virtual Machine. Today, the token's utility includes paying for network gas, participating in staking rewards, and enabling decentralized governance through which holders can vote on technical upgrades and economic changes.

Binance

BNB is under pressure amid discussion of a reported Binance security breach, with traders debating the incidents impact on exchange trust and whether customer assets are at risk. Some expect further selling, while others argue the damage may be contained and view the market reaction as limited.

Apple, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and other varieties of related services. It operates through the following geographical segments: Americas, Europe, Greater China, Japan, and Rest of Asia Pacific. The Americas segment includes North and South America. The Europe segment consists of European countries, as well as India, the Middle East, and Africa. The Greater China segment comprises China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. The Rest of Asia Pacific segment includes Australia and Asian countries. Its products and services include iPhone, Mac, iPad, AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, AppleCare, iCloud, digital content stores, streaming, and licensing services. The company was founded by Steven Paul Jobs, Ronald Gerald Wayne, and Stephen G. Wozniak in April 1976 and is headquartered in Cupertino, CA.

Apple Inc

Apples resilience amid weakness in AI-heavy mega-cap tech has fueled talk of a safe-haven rotation into the stock, with traders also focused on its upcoming earnings report. Bulls see its lower AI spending and established business as defensive, while bears argue the valuation is stretched and the shares are vulnerable to an earnings-related pullback.

Rivian Automotive, Inc. engages in the design, development, and manufacture of category-defining electric vehicles and accessories. It operates through following segments: Automotive, Software and Services. The company was founded by Robert J. Scaringe in June 2009 and is headquartered in Irvine, CA.

Rivian Automotive Inc - Ordinary Shares - Class A

Rivian Automotive Inc

Rivians Q3 results beat expectations as R2 deliveries ramped, and the company raised its full-year delivery outlook, prompting bullish calls that growth is accelerating. The reaction is tempered by concerns about continued losses, cash burn, and automotive profitability, with some traders disappointed that the stocks response has been muted.

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1

QQQ is under pressure as weak Amazon and Intel results and rising Big Tech AI spending stoke concerns about whether the investments will generate sufficient returns. Traders are split between calling the tech selloff an AI-bubble warning and viewing the pullback as a buying opportunity.

NVIDIA Corp. engages in the design and manufacture of computer graphics processors, chipsets, and related multimedia software. It operates through the following segments: Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) and Compute & Networking. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, Quadro and NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics, virtual GPU, or vGPU, software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing, automotive platforms for infotainment systems, and Omniverse Enterprise software for building and operating metaverse and 3D internet applications. The Compute & Networking segment consists of Data Center accelerated computing platforms and end-to-end networking platforms including Quantum for InfiniBand and Spectrum for Ethernet, NVIDIA DRIVE automated-driving platform and automotive development agreements, Jetson robotics and other embedded platforms, NVIDIA AI Enterprise and other software, and DGX Cloud software and services. The company was founded by Jen Hsun Huang, Chris A. Malachowsky, and Curtis R. Priem in April 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, CA.

NVIDIA Corp

Nvidia is under pressure amid a broader AI and semiconductor selloff, as weaker Intel and Amazon results and doubts about returns on heavy AI infrastructure spending weigh on sentiment. Traders also debate reported Nvidia credit support for an Nscale data center tied to Anthropic, with bears viewing it as circular financing and bulls arguing that AI demand remains strong.

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Neutral Sentiment

Hold rates steady

Cut 25 bps

Hike 25 bps

Fed decision day is here - Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting with markets pricing a hold at 3.50%-3.75% but watching for a hawkish shift. Vote on what you expect to be decided today, then drop your prediction for the first rate cut or hike in the comments.

What do you expect the Fed to decide at its FOMC meeting today? 
 
Drop a comment with when you expect the first cut/hike to be.

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