OTLY Oatly Group

$OTLY yes their debt situation isn‘t great but they are closing in fast on $1 billion annual revenue with healthy growth, expanding margins and approaching positive EBITDA. The consensus view was that there was no moat in oat milk but i see competitors are losing share and ultimately cannot compete or reach scale necessary to become profitable. This business is worth easily 3/4x what its trading at today.

$OTLY — Short interest under 400K shares—an all-time low—yet still around 7 days to cover because volume is so light. My bullish take: bearish positioning has faded. Fresh buying demand could have a big impact in this thinly traded stock. Watching for volume to increase. 🐂👀

$OTLY +20 after ER. This China stuff is really concrete block chained to leg. Release us Flatin!

$OTLY Wow, this is insane. I don't even have a position and never had, but I am watching this because I liked some of their products. This sort of price action on the earnings is insane to witness and it's very stupid ahh 😅 Just reveals the degree to which the market is completely irrational.

$OTLY massive TAM , improving GM and a possibility of a sale of the china business to pay a chunk off the debt

$OTLY — Oatly spotted in Buenos Aires, Argentina — at one of the 100 Best Coffee Shops in South America!

$OTLY Don't forget that a China carve-out could significantly reduce costs. Around 22% of Oatly's workforce is based in China alone. With FY25 salary expenses of roughly $180 million, this could mean up to $40 million in potential savings. On top of that, Oatly could avoid further CapEx for its Chinese production facility, reduce advertising expenses, lower SBC and potentially cut interest expenses, although most of the latter is accrued. A China carve-out could be a key catalyst, not just because of the potential deal proceeds, but also because of the structural cost savings.

$OTLY One week left until earnings! I'm really excited to see the progress in North America. I'm not sure how much growth to expect in the U.S., but even a slight acceleration or signs of good acceptance of new products could improve the equity story. Wall Street tends to be overly focused on North America. We may also get an update on China. Oatly has been working on it for more than a year, spent roughly $8 million, and Bloomberg reported that a management buyout was being considered. It looks like we could finally see some kind of deal. If earnings are good, Oatly could finally see $20 again. This time, we're starting from a much higher share price, so a jump would be even more impactful than it was from the previous depressed levels.

$OTLY And they spent another $2.4 million on the strategic review. If no deal comes out of it, I honestly don't know what they spent all that money on...

$OTLY feeling nervous for tomorrow. Inflation hurts just as we are getting EBITA positive. China will be announced or be punted till next Q (4Q2026). We heard the China assessment will be announced by end of the FY 2026. I’m expecting growth continues in Europe. I don’t see meaningful growth in the US at the moment.

$OTLY “I reaffirm that our business plan remains fully funded... Year-to-date results are consistent with our expectations, and at the end of Q3, total available liquidity was $95 million, including undrawn bank facilities. Aside from the quarterly volatility in cash phasing this year, we see continued progress in our underlying cash drivers and opportunities for further improvement across all levers of cash flow. We continue to expect that free cash flow will not be positive for the full year 2026. Specifically for Q4, we anticipate improved cash flow relative to Q3 and last year from multiple factors” (Q&A, Q3/2026)

$OTLY Love the company and buy the product a LOT but one of the worst “investments” of my life…

$OTLY My goodness, we will be beaten badly today. Ebitda guidance cut, US growth stalling, inflation eating up margins.

$OTLY I was hoping it would at least hold 8, but I am apparently not the only one that sees the flaws in the management decisions. Its not even shorts, its selling, management is so incredibly incompetent.

$OTLY manipulation from 16 to 10. And now probably entering another excellent quarter 25% less than we should be… wTF…

$OTLY — We all wanted that huge post-Q2 spike to stick, but we’re still up about 18% since the earnings release. That’s progress worth recognizing. I’m optimistic this quarter will build on Q2’s growth and improvements—and give the next rally a stronger foundation to hold its gains.

$OTLY Alright, who's going to China to see how things are progressing? I am about to go do it if there is no news. Last trip could have been better but if the playbook has been rolled out there then we are gucci.

$OTLY Probably most crucial is the spin-off or sale of the Asia business at a decent price high enough to pay off a material chunk of the long-term debt, right? Without such a deal the company's likely doomed to fail, on the other hand, if a sensible deal is announced, we could see share price jump 100% on a day, uh? 🤔

$OTLY i come and go from this all the time. back in again! for now. best goddamn oatmilk on the market by far.

$OTLY Alright feeling better after crunching numbers and i hope you will too! The additional adverting spend and the loss in China cloud the overall picture. EU is doing amazingly and picking up the slack. Compared to other competitors in the space and in the NA beverage industry Oatly is over performing as well. Oatly vanilla is selling out. My opinion is Oatly will become cash positive in h2 next year. It could do it now by sacrificing marketing but it's better to increase it for what seems to be guaranteed growth. ROAS is more than x2 compared to the growth and the marketing team is over performing. Only discrepancy there is the China issue and the company is definitely better off creating a partnership. The decreased revenue shows it and a partnership could easily turn it around. Although it would take the same marketing focus similar to EU and in what's coming in NA.