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Brief India: India's LPG Shock: Mapping the Multiplier Effect Across 10 Sectors and more
In this briefing: India's LPG Shock: Mapping the Multiplier Effect Across 10 Sectors Optical Fiber Cable, 5G, and AI: The 3-Wave Demand Surge for India's Cable Manufacturers LPG Crisis Proxy Play: How Middle Eastern War Opens Opportunity in India's Induction Industry SaaSpocalypse Now. Are We Done Already? Sharp Surge in Memory Chip Prices: 2 Smallcap Indian Benficiaries 1. India's LPG Shock: Mapping the Multiplier Effect Across 10 Sectors India's domestic gas supply collapsed after the US-Iran war shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting 85-90% of natural gas imports and triggering emergency government rationing. Ceramics, QSR chains, food delivery, and gig workers face severe disruption ; induction appliance makers and domestic-focused CGD operators emerge as clear structural beneficiaries. Duration determines the damage: a short shock(Scenario-1) is a blip, but a prolonged crisis(Scenario-3) permanently rewires India's cooking fuel mix and equity positioning across sectors. 2. Optical Fiber Cable, 5G, and AI: The 3-Wave Demand Surge for India's Cable Manufacturers Global fiber optic cable demand is entering a structural upcycle driven by 5G densification, AI data center buildouts, and national broadband mandates.
cityfalcon.com·23d ago
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Brief India: Optical Fiber Cable, 5G, and AI: The 3-Wave Demand Surge for India's Cable Manufacturers and more
In this briefing: Optical Fiber Cable, 5G, and AI: The 3-Wave Demand Surge for India's Cable Manufacturers LPG Crisis Proxy Play: How Middle Eastern War Opens Opportunity in India's Induction Industry SaaSpocalypse Now. Are We Done Already? Sharp Surge in Memory Chip Prices: 2 Smallcap Indian Benficiaries Aequitas: Raajmarg InvIT IPO - Stable Assets in a Small Portfolio, but Limited Immediate Appeal 1. Optical Fiber Cable, 5G, and AI: The 3-Wave Demand Surge for India's Cable Manufacturers Global fiber optic cable demand is entering a structural upcycle driven by 5G densification, AI data center buildouts, and national broadband mandates. Three domestic manufacturers, Sterlite Technologies (SOTL IN) , HFCL Ltd (HMFC IN) , and Finolex Cables (FNXC IN) , are positioned directly in the path of this demand surge. The India OFC story is early-cycle, policy-backed, and supply-constrained. With BharatNet Phase III, 5G backhaul demand, AI-driven data center, the next 36-months could be defining for Indian fiber cable manufacturers. 2.
cityfalcon.com·23d ago
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Brief USA: Primer: Century Aluminum Company (CENX US) - Mar 2026 and more
In this briefing: Primer: Century Aluminum Company (CENX US) - Mar 2026 The Market Is Saying That the World Needs the Strait of Hormuz Reopened, Not an IEA Stock Release Telegram X TON: How to Build a Business that Brings Digital Freedom and Privacy to 1 Billion Users SaaSpocalypse Now. Are We Done Already? Sharp Surge in Memory Chip Prices: 2 Smallcap Indian Benficiaries 1. Primer: Century Aluminum Company (CENX US) - Mar 2026 Century Aluminum is strategically positioned as a key U.S. domestic producer, set to benefit from favorable trade policies and growing demand for aluminum in high-growth sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy. The company's financial performance is highly leveraged to volatile aluminum and energy prices, creating significant earnings uncertainty. However, recent results show strong top-line growth driven by pricing power, particularly the U.S. Midwest Premium. Future growth is contingent on the successful execution of major capital projects, including the restart of idled capacity at its Mt.
cityfalcon.com·24d ago
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Brief USA: The Market Is Saying That the World Needs the Strait of Hormuz Reopened, Not an IEA Stock Release and more
In this briefing: The Market Is Saying That the World Needs the Strait of Hormuz Reopened, Not an IEA Stock Release Telegram X TON: How to Build a Business that Brings Digital Freedom and Privacy to 1 Billion Users SaaSpocalypse Now. Are We Done Already? Sharp Surge in Memory Chip Prices: 2 Smallcap Indian Benficiaries CX Daily: Hidden Dangers Loom Behind China’s Wildlife Feeding Craze 1. The Market Is Saying That the World Needs the Strait of Hormuz Reopened, Not an IEA Stock Release In typical market behavior we all have seen over the years, the IEA stock release had been more than discounted by the market. Market participants are still willing to buy unless they see the Strait of Hormuz reopened and remain reopened. We will suggest that the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract will not return to near-$120 per barrel, since in our view the last $40-odd dollars largely represented short covering. 2. Telegram X TON: How to Build a Business that Brings Digital Freedom and Privacy to 1 Billion Users Our fourth research piece on TON and Telegram focuses on how they protect digital freedom and privacy at scale, contrasting with the dominant internet business model that commodifies user data for ad sales.
cityfalcon.com·24d ago
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Brief India: LPG Crisis Proxy Play: How Middle Eastern War Opens Opportunity in India's Induction Industry and more
In this briefing: LPG Crisis Proxy Play: How Middle Eastern War Opens Opportunity in India's Induction Industry SaaSpocalypse Now. Are We Done Already? Sharp Surge in Memory Chip Prices: 2 Smallcap Indian Benficiaries Aequitas: Raajmarg InvIT IPO - Stable Assets in a Small Portfolio, but Limited Immediate Appeal InterGlobe Aviation- Turbulence Beyond Operations 1. LPG Crisis Proxy Play: How Middle Eastern War Opens Opportunity in India's Induction Industry Strait of Hormuz disruptions choked India's LPG imports, triggering a 20x demand spike for induction cooktops across e-commerce and quick-commerce platforms overnight. TTK Prestige (TTKPT IN) , Stove Kraft (STOVEKRA IN) , and Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances (BGAL IN) surged 14-17% ; their moats lie in brand depth, distribution scale, and complete cooking ecosystems. Even if LPG normalises quickly, we expect 30-40% of first-time induction buyers likely retain usage, pulling forward 2 years of structural volume growth. 2. SaaSpocalypse Now.
cityfalcon.com·24d ago
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Brief Growth Ideas: Aequitas: PayPay IPO Trading - Valuations Digestible, Sentiment Suffering and more
In this briefing: Aequitas: PayPay IPO Trading - Valuations Digestible, Sentiment Suffering Aequitas: Delton Technology A/H Listing - Wide A/H Premium and Cheaper than International Peers Primer: adidas (ADDYY US) - Mar 2026 Sharp Surge in Memory Chip Prices: 2 Smallcap Indian Benficiaries Aequitas: Raajmarg InvIT IPO - Stable Assets in a Small Portfolio, but Limited Immediate Appeal 1. Aequitas: PayPay IPO Trading - Valuations Digestible, Sentiment Suffering PayPay (PAYP US) , a payments and financial services platform, raised around US$880m in its US IPO after pricing below the range. PP operates a digital finance platform that serves as a payment solution for users and merchants, along with offering additional services. We have looked at its past performance and valuations in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics. 2. Aequitas: Delton Technology A/H Listing - Wide A/H Premium and Cheaper than International Peers Delton Technology (1989 HK) is looking to raise up to US$420m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
cityfalcon.com·24d ago
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Brief Growth Ideas: Aequitas: Delton Technology A/H Listing - Wide A/H Premium and Cheaper than International Peers and more
In this briefing: Aequitas: Delton Technology A/H Listing - Wide A/H Premium and Cheaper than International Peers Primer: adidas (ADDYY US) - Mar 2026 Sharp Surge in Memory Chip Prices: 2 Smallcap Indian Benficiaries Aequitas: Raajmarg InvIT IPO - Stable Assets in a Small Portfolio, but Limited Immediate Appeal Suzhou Genhouse Bio (勤浩医药) Pre-IPO: Moderate Innovation, Capped by Combination Economics 1. Aequitas: Delton Technology A/H Listing - Wide A/H Premium and Cheaper than International Peers Delton Technology (1989 HK) is looking to raise up to US$420m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. It is a leading manufacturer of customized printed circuit boards (PCBs) for high performance servers and other computing applications. In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation. 2. Primer: adidas (ADDYY US) - Mar 2026 Adidas is in a turnaround phase under CEO Bjørn Gulden, who took over in January 2023, with a focus on product innovation, strengthening wholesale partnerships, and improving profitability after a challenging period.
cityfalcon.com·24d ago
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Brief USA: SaaSpocalypse Now. Are We Done Already? and more
In this briefing: SaaSpocalypse Now. Are We Done Already? Sharp Surge in Memory Chip Prices: 2 Smallcap Indian Benficiaries CX Daily: Hidden Dangers Loom Behind China’s Wildlife Feeding Craze Oil futures: Crude higher despite IEA strategic stocks release plan Primer: Italic - 11 Mar 2026 1. SaaSpocalypse Now. Are We Done Already? From its all time high of ~$118 back in September 2025, IGV, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF, is currently down ~26% Despite the Saaspocalypse, SaaS earnings and outlook have rarely looked better. The issue isn't that AI can replace SaaS, it's the risk that SaaS per seat pricing models will fall apart in an agent-centric world. 2. Sharp Surge in Memory Chip Prices: 2 Smallcap Indian Benficiaries AI-Driven demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) has triggered a global DRAM supercycle, with prices rising over 170% year-on-year by late 2025. Indian listed distributors Rashi Peripherals (RPTECH IN) and GNG Electronics- one riding pre-buy inventory demand, the other benefiting from structural cost tailwinds in refurbishment.
cityfalcon.com·24d ago
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Brief India: SaaSpocalypse Now. Are We Done Already? and more
In this briefing: SaaSpocalypse Now. Are We Done Already? Sharp Surge in Memory Chip Prices: 2 Smallcap Indian Benficiaries Aequitas: Raajmarg InvIT IPO - Stable Assets in a Small Portfolio, but Limited Immediate Appeal InterGlobe Aviation- Turbulence Beyond Operations Primer: Gateway Distriparks (GDPL IN) - Mar 2026 1. SaaSpocalypse Now. Are We Done Already? From its all time high of ~$118 back in September 2025, IGV, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF, is currently down ~26% Despite the Saaspocalypse, SaaS earnings and outlook have rarely looked better. The issue isn't that AI can replace SaaS, it's the risk that SaaS per seat pricing models will fall apart in an agent-centric world. 2. Sharp Surge in Memory Chip Prices: 2 Smallcap Indian Benficiaries AI-Driven demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) has triggered a global DRAM supercycle, with prices rising over 170% year-on-year by late 2025. Indian listed distributors Rashi Peripherals (RPTECH IN) and GNG Electronics- one riding pre-buy inventory demand, the other benefiting from structural cost tailwinds in refurbishment.
cityfalcon.com·24d ago
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Brief Growth Ideas: Sharp Surge in Memory Chip Prices: 2 Smallcap Indian Benficiaries and more
In this briefing: Sharp Surge in Memory Chip Prices: 2 Smallcap Indian Benficiaries Aequitas: Raajmarg InvIT IPO - Stable Assets in a Small Portfolio, but Limited Immediate Appeal Suzhou Genhouse Bio (勤浩医药) Pre-IPO: Moderate Innovation, Capped by Combination Economics Primer: Gateway Distriparks (GDPL IN) - Mar 2026 Aequitas: Ringpai Vet Hospital Pre-IPO- The Negatives- Supplier Concentration in a Fragmented Market 1. Sharp Surge in Memory Chip Prices: 2 Smallcap Indian Benficiaries AI-Driven demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) has triggered a global DRAM supercycle, with prices rising over 170% year-on-year by late 2025. Indian listed distributors Rashi Peripherals (RPTECH IN) and GNG Electronics- one riding pre-buy inventory demand, the other benefiting from structural cost tailwinds in refurbishment. Government is also pushing chip manufacturing in India by introducing India Semiconductor Mission (ISM), backed by INR 1.8 lakh crore as incentives. 2. Aequitas: Raajmarg InvIT IPO - Stable Assets in a Small Portfolio, but Limited Immediate Appeal Raajmarg Infra Investment Trust (RIIT IN) is planning to raise about US$652m through its India IPO.
cityfalcon.com·24d ago
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