SFTBY SoftBank Corp.

$SFTBY $QQQ SoftBank nearly collapsed in 2001 (dot-com) and 2020 (WeWork + Vision Fund). Looks like Masa Son is trying to do a 3-peat. Third time’s a charm?

$SFTBY $ARM SoftBank is not really a mysterious Japanese conglomerate. At today's valuations it is essentially: ~¥44T ARM ~¥17–18T OpenAI ~¥1.6T Intel ~¥4T SoftBank Corp. ~¥15T everything else ~¥82T less debt. Lets use 14T as a End Sep estimate ~¥68T And the shares are currently worth only about ¥36T in Tokyo (6,310 × ~5.7B shares) (approx $40. SFTBY = 1/2 a share). The October 2 close was ¥6,310. Yahoo Finance So yes — the NAV discount is real and very large, but the market is also being asked to trust two enormous marks: ARM at ~$328B and OpenAI at ~$852B. 68T assts for 36T seems a very good discount to get exposure to openAI

$SFTBY $SFTBF: SoftBank Group is considering acquiring Allied Universal in a deal that could value the U.S. security company at about $18B, Reuters reports, citing Bloomberg. Allied provides security services for businesses, major events and data centers. The potential acquisition would support SoftBank’s growing AI and robotics ambitions, with plans reportedly to eventually replace some security workers with robots. Talks remain preliminary. No final decision or price has been agreed, and SoftBank declined to comment. For investors, this signals SoftBank’s push to expand AI beyond software and chips into real-world automation. But the deal is NOT confirmed, and execution, financing and integration risks remain. (Source: Reuters)

SoftBank’s five-year credit default swaps (CDS) climbed to 432 basis points, their highest level since November 2022, as concerns mount over debt-funded AI investments and a potential acquisition of security-services provider Allied Universal. Spreads have widened by more than 30 basis points since exceeding 400 a week earlier, reflecting rising financing costs and growing risks across the AI infrastructure sector. Financial difficulties at U.S. cloud provider CoreWeave have intensified scrutiny of the industry’s mounting debt. SoftBank’s CDS spreads are now the highest among major Japanese companies, exceeding Nissan’s by more than 130 basis points. Comparable levels in 2022 coincided with heavy Vision Fund losses and a defensive shift in SoftBank’s investment strategy. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Sharon Chen estimates SoftBank will face at least $6 billion in cash outflows during the fiscal year ending March 2027. $SFTBY $CRWV

$SFTBY $ARM Why does Softbank not monetize 20% of its ARM and Intel positions through systematic options strategies and use all net premium proceeds for share repurchases? Seems so obvious.