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Brief India: India: CA Surplus Likely Despite US Tariffs; Tame Inflation Allows More Rate Cuts and more
In this briefing: India: CA Surplus Likely Despite US Tariffs; Tame Inflation Allows More Rate Cuts Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar26: Five Changes and US$367mn One-Way Flow NIFTY Next 50 Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia Pick of the Week: DOMS Industries - 24th January, 2026 HSIE Results Daily: Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, Supreme Industries, Dalmia Bharat, Gujarat Gas... 1. India: CA Surplus Likely Despite US Tariffs; Tame Inflation Allows More Rate Cuts Merchandise exports grew 3.1%YoY in Oct-Dec'25 despite Trump's 50% tariffs, but imports grew 7.8%YoY. The Apr-Dec'25 goods deficit rose 10.8%YoY, but the services surplus for Apr-Nov'25 expanded 17%YoY. Our estimated CAD for Apr-Dec'25 is US$6bn (0.2% of GDP). Even with a smaller Jan-Mar surplus than last year's US$13.4bn, we expect a FY26 current account surplus (0.1% of GDP). CPI inflation averaged 0.9%YoY in Oct-Dec'25, and will likely average 2%YoY in Jan-Mar'26 (vs RBI forecast of 2.9%YoY). We expect another 50bp of cuts by Jun'26, to a 4.75% repo-rate. 2.
cityfalcon.com·2mo ago
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Brief India: Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar26: Five Changes and US$367mn One-Way Flow NIFTY Next 50 and more
In this briefing: Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar26: Five Changes and US$367mn One-Way Flow NIFTY Next 50 Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia Pick of the Week: DOMS Industries - 24th January, 2026 HSIE Results Daily: Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, Supreme Industries, Dalmia Bharat, Gujarat Gas... HSIE Results Daily: Indian Bank, Mphasis, Go Digit General Insurance, Bandhan Bank... 1. Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar26: Five Changes and US$367mn One-Way Flow NIFTY Next 50 NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names. Here we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these indices during the March 2026 index rebal event. We see no changes for NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY 100 (and NIFTY Next 50). 2. Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Green Energy, Jababeka, Nissan Motor, JSW Steel UST yields fell 1-2 bps on Friday, although there were no material catalysts.
cityfalcon.com·2mo ago
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Brief Growth Ideas: GAS [MARKET PERFORM -3.9%] - Higher LPG, IP Profits to Boost Growth and more
In this briefing: GAS [MARKET PERFORM -3.9%] - Higher LPG, IP Profits to Boost Growth BID - Steady Growth Amid Capital Constraints and NPL Control LX Hausys (108670 KS/Hold)Building Materials Earnings Recovery Likely to Take Time Pick of the Week: DOMS Industries - 24th January, 2026 HSIE Results Daily: Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, Supreme Industries, Dalmia Bharat, Gujarat Gas... 1. GAS [MARKET PERFORM -3.9%] - Higher LPG, IP Profits to Boost Growth We raise our target price (TP) for GAS by 29% to VND98,200/share but downgrade our rating from BUY to MARKET PERFORM as the share price has risen by 67% over the past three months. Our higher TP is mainly due to:1) an 11% higher aggregate 5-year NPAT forecast, and 2) higher target P/E multiple of 20x (vs 15.5x previously) in addition to raising the weight of the P/E method from 30% to 50% to reflect its growth cycle (projected 2026-28F NPAT CAGR of 25%). We believe gas volume bottomed out in 2025 and will double over the next five years. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.
cityfalcon.com·2mo ago
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Brief Growth Ideas: BID - Steady Growth Amid Capital Constraints and NPL Control and more
In this briefing: BID - Steady Growth Amid Capital Constraints and NPL Control LX Hausys (108670 KS/Hold)Building Materials Earnings Recovery Likely to Take Time Pick of the Week: DOMS Industries - 24th January, 2026 HSIE Results Daily: Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, Supreme Industries, Dalmia Bharat, Gujarat Gas... HSIE Results Daily: Indian Bank, Mphasis, Go Digit General Insurance, Bandhan Bank... 1. BID - Steady Growth Amid Capital Constraints and NPL Control We issue an updated valuation report on BID shares of the JSC Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam, with a 12-month target price of VND 50,100, equivalent to a projected 2026F P/B multiple of 1.8x. BID is Vietnam's largest state-owned commercial bank by total assets, exceeding VND 3.25 quadrillion (approximately USD 133 billion) as of end-2025. It benefits from a low cost of funds, a comprehensive financial services ecosystem, and an extensive nationwide distribution network. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.
cityfalcon.com·2mo ago
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Brief Growth Ideas: LX Hausys (108670 KS/Hold)Building Materials Earnings Recovery Likely to Take Time and more
In this briefing: LX Hausys (108670 KS/Hold)Building Materials Earnings Recovery Likely to Take Time Pick of the Week: DOMS Industries - 24th January, 2026 HSIE Results Daily: Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, Supreme Industries, Dalmia Bharat, Gujarat Gas... HSIE Results Daily: Indian Bank, Mphasis, Go Digit General Insurance, Bandhan Bank... Ping An (2318 HK) - Banca Fuelling NBV Growth in Jumpstart Sales... 1. LX Hausys (108670 KS/Hold)Building Materials Earnings Recovery Likely to Take Time For 4Q25, we expect LX Hausys to report consolidated revenue of W816.3bn (-8.3% YoY) and operating profit of W11.2bn (+128.6% YoY; below the consensus of W16.7bn). Building materials earnings likely remained weak, due to: 1) a decline in B2B sales following subdued new housing presales; and 2) persistently weak profits in premium product lines (e.g., PF insulation materials, US engineered stone). By contrast, the automotive materials/industrial film division likely drove company-wide earnings growth, supported by a solid performance in automotive fabrics and a broader overseas customer base for film exports.
cityfalcon.com·2mo ago
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