TXT Textron Inc.

$TXT reports earnings tomorrow before the open. I’m bullish heading into the report: TXT has beaten EPS estimates in 7 of its last 8 reports, according to Stock Meadow.

$TXT finished goods inventory is growing a lot faster than the rest of its stock. Finished goods hit 1,335 million dollars at October 3, up about 21 percent from 1,104 million dollars at the start of the year, while work in process rose to 2,294 million dollars and raw materials and components rose to 1,232 million dollars. Total backlog was 19,048 million dollars, with Aviation up to 7,995 million dollars and Bell down to 7,562 million dollars since January.

$TXT reported earnings before the open: adjusted EPS of $1.76 vs. $1.43 estimated, a beat of 23.1%. I used Stock Meadow to review the results.

$TXT Q3 '26 Earnings Results & Recap • Reported GAAP EPS of $1.76 up 13.55% YoY • Textron raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $6.55$6.65 from $6.40$6.60 and manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions outlook to $800M from $700M for 2026.

$TXT Can Textron hit its raised $800M-$900M cash target with only $344M in hand after nine months? 🏢 Textron, maker of Cessna jets and Bell helicopters, is worth about $13.47B at $78.32 a share at 16:00 ET on October 28, 2026, and it raised its 2026 manufacturing cash flow outlook to $800M-$900M from $700M-$800M ⚠️ Cash flow before pension contributions was $344M through nine months, down from $459M a year earlier, so the fourth quarter must bring in $456M-$556M, more than the third quarter's $418M 💰 On the other side, third-quarter cash flow jumped to $418M from $281M, and $239M of buybacks in the quarter helped cut diluted shares to 172.5M from 179.2M a year earlier, which lifts per-share results 📅 Next: Management walks through the quarter and outlook on its 8:00 a.m. (Eastern) call on October 29, 2026; watch the fourth-quarter cash path and MV-75 payment timing Source: SEC 8-K, Oct 29

$TXT Short-term tape and crowd positioning are pricing in immediate damage, but the pessimism treats a structural aerospace pivot as a cyclical problem. Our read was contrarian bullish as of 11 Oct 2026. As shown in the chart attached, the split runs along time horizons: near-term technicals and CMF at -0.31 show steady distribution below the 200-day moving average of $89.25, and operating margins sit at 6.7% amid manufacturing friction. Yet long-term fundamentals and sentiment are bullish, supported by a 13.5x forward P/E on GAAP guidance, a $18.9 billion order backlog, and net institutional accumulation where 7 of the 10 largest 13F holders added shares. We would change our mind if the ongoing Industrial segment sale process collapses permanently or if Bell absorbs unrecovered catch-up losses from the Army reprogramming. (Disclosure: we're and this is our own research.)