Precious Metals Slowly Melt Lower

With the stock market catching its breath before a new earnings season begins, we’ve been trying to highlight other market trends. And right now, one of those is in the precious metals section of the commodities space. πŸ‘€

Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium are all considered precious metals for those unfamiliar. These metals are rare, naturally occurring metallic chemical elements of high economic value…hence the name. *cue the Gollum “my precious” meme.*

While these are all important for economic purposes…making their way into technology, consumer goods like jewelry, and elsewhere, they’re not like base metals copper, nickel, aluminum, etc., that primarily serve an industrial need. πŸ’

In the investment world, they’re often included in people’s portfolios as an “inflation” or “end of the world” hedge. As a real asset, the theory is that these physical goods of high value should go up in value during times of economic uncertainty or high inflation. That theory, while logical, doesn’t always hold up when looking at the data. However, it’s still a core investment pitched to investors, professional and retail alike. πŸͺ™

So why are we talking about precious metals today? Some investors in the community have recently highlighted the slowly declining price action over the last few weeks.

Below is an overlay chart of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. As we can see, gold has held up the best but is still hitting three-month lows, along with silver and platinum. Meanwhile, palladium made fresh four-year lows this week.Β  πŸ‘‡

Now this doesn’t necessarily imply that prices will continue lower. But with inflation coming down and a lot of the economic uncertainty being removed from the market recently, it’s not surprising to see these tangible assets start to move lower. πŸ”»

The current backdrop is causing many investors to rethink where this group could be heading in the short to medium term. As such, this chart will undoubtedly be on investors’ radars as we head into the second half of 2023.

As always, we’ll keep you updated on how this short-term trend develops. But for now, traders in the community are bracing for a test of those March lows. 😬

Traders Eye Gasoline Prices

Despite being a slow day overall, one chart in the commodities space had traders gassed up. Pun intended. πŸ™ƒ

That commodity is gasoline, which is heavily tracked due to its impact on consumer confidence and the economy. And most recently, there’s been a significant decline in prices that’s helped cheer people up ahead of the holidaysβ€”case in point: the headlines below. πŸ‘‡

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Breakfast Is Getting More Expensive

Some say breakfast is the most important meal of the day. But unfortunately, the commodity markets are saying that prices to fill your bowls and cups each morning could be heading higher. πŸ₯£

If we look at Finviz’s year-to-date performance chart for the major assets tracked by the futures markets, four of the top five gainers are agricultural commodities. Orange juice leads the pack, rising 84.53%, followed by sugar (+44.2%), Cocoa (+39.68%), and Oats (+30.10%). They’re only separated by the Nasdaq 100, which is up 36.91%.

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Gold Shimmers Around $2,000/Oz

Precious metals have not gotten much fanfare lately, especially with palladium in a downtrend and platinum and silver stuck in messy ranges. πŸ’€

However, one that continues to pop up on investor and trader radars is gold, which is once again trying to break above $2,000/oz. Below is a chart showing prices stuck in a range for the last 2.5 years, each time failing to sustain a break above resistance. πŸ”

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Natural Gas Is Moving Fast

Okay, maybe not fast. But it certainly is moving differently than it has been. After falling about 80% from its highs from August to March, natural gas futures have been taking the first step to reverse their trend…stop going down. ⏸️

Below is a daily chart of natural gas futures trading in a $2.00 to $2.65 range for the last five months. But this week, traders are putting it back on their radar due to its strength relative to the rest of the energy commodity complex. With crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil all falling several percent this week, natural gas’s nearly 5% gain certainly stands out. πŸ€”

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