Grayscale’s legal tussle with the SEC approaches its finale. The bone of contention? Grayscale’s bid to transform its Bitcoin trust ($GBTC) into a spot $BTC ETF. 🗓️
Bloomberg’s James Seyffart hinted at August 15th (yesterday) as a potential verdict day, but that’s come and gone. A trending Tweet from Scott Johnson explains why he believes Friday is a day to watch, too:
March '21/'22 cases with decisions within 160 days of oral: 30/32 (94%)
Days since Grayscale (March '23) oral: 160 days
Why should we expect August? Because law clerks for DC generally cycle in/out this month, so judges aim to clear prior caseload before the new guard arrives. https://t.co/vVj0dHus90
— Scott Johnsson (@SGJohnsson) August 14, 2023
Others are not convinced, such as the President of ETFStore, who thinks a decision won’t happen until January 2024:
As for timing, I’ll stick w/ my original prediction…
Jan 2024.
I’ll probably be wrong on this, but I still say BlackRock is first to market (b/c I believe they are critical to Nasdaq ultimately securing COIN SSA).
I think SEC will approve competitors VERY quickly thereafter.
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) August 9, 2023
The backstory is a fiery one. In June 2022, the SEC gave a thumbs down to Grayscale’s application, prompting the crypto giant to retaliate with a lawsuit. Their claim? The SEC’s inconsistent treatment of similar investment propositions.
What does the current discount to NAV for GBTC look like?
The discount is still in the 25% range, but it was in the -40% zone until late June 2023.
The countdown is on. 🔥