The End Of The Line

A national eviction ban expires next week, allowing landlords to evict delinquent renters. 

According to one analyst, as many as 14% of renters are behind on housing payments. That figure could reach over 10M.

During the pandemic, the eviction ban reduced eviction filings by over 50%. But next week, millions of renters could lose their homes. 

Now, the government is distributing $45B in rental assistance… but emergency funds probably won’t make it in time. Evicted tenants will pull on credit, take out loans, or even become homeless. 

Rent fell during the pandemic as landlords searched for tenants to pad their losses. Now that the pandemic is subsiding, rent’s rising again. That’s a turn for the worse for the many millions who are behind on rent. 

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Job Market Continues Cooling

The U.S. labor market continues to cool, which is great news for the Federal Reserve and its 2% inflation goal. While we’ll get more employment data in the days ahead, the November Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) report was significant.

From a job openings perspective, they fell to their lowest level since March 2021 at 8.79 million. That pushed the ratio of job openings to available workers down to 1.4:1, well off its peak of 2:1, where it sat for most of 2022. 📊

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Jobs Data Dampers Q1 Rate Cut Odds

While the leading indicators of employment continue to point to a slowdown, coincident indicators like U.S. nonfarm payrolls and ADP employment data continue to surprise to the upside. For stock market bulls, that may be bad news as it takes hopes of a first-quarter rate cut off the table. 😞

As we’ve discussed, much of the market’s recent rally has come on the back of hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut rates as much as six times in 2024. Disinflation continues across most major metrics, but a tight labor market has kept consumers spending and the economy humming along. As a result, Jerome Powell and the Fed have been hesitant to loosen financial conditions too quickly.

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Market Looks Past CPI Report

If it feels like the market is largely finished obsessing about inflation data, it’s because it essentially is. Unless there’s a significant pick up in the core inflation metrics the Fed is watching closely, the market seems set on rates staying steady at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

And August’s consumer price index (CPI) data did little to move the needle. 😴

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Producer Prices’ Third Straight Rise

After twelve straight months of year-over-year declines, producer prices have stabilized and are back on the rise these last three months. That, combined with the stickiness in core consumer prices, has investors wondering if inflation could return from the dead. 😬

The headline producer price index (PPI) rose 0.5% MoM and 2.2% YoY in September. Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose 0.3% MoM as services drove the larger-than-expected increase. 🔺

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