Economic Growth Woes

Stocks are trading down today for a few reasons: Fed worries, speculation around job numbers, and the Delta variant’s world tour. πŸ‘Ž

Today, the vice-chair of America’s central bank indicated that interest rates might rise as early as 2023, paving the road to cut bond sales later this year.

Unfortunately, investors didn’t take that news very well. That’s because both bonds and stocks have been propped up by the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy. That is, at least, if you buy into the data. πŸ’

To make matters worse, investors were given two pieces of conflicting economic data before US payrolls this Friday. The first was ADP’s employment data, which showed we added way fewer jobs last month than we should have. The second was ISM’s service gauge, which topped estimates and indicated that “business activity, new orders, and employment improved.”

To make matters worse, investors now have to consider whether the emergence of the all-new Delta PlusΒ variant is something they should worry about. No, it’s not a streaming service or subscription to a SaaS serviceβ€”it could be the next BIGΒ variant. Or not. Who knows. There’s, like, six COVID variants now, so every COVID glo up is going to scare investors less and less.Β 

Worries aside, with our luck stocks will probably trade up tomorrow. πŸ™„

$VTI traded down 0.45% today.

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Diving Into December CPI

The market had been pricing in some aggressive rate cut expectations for 2024, looking for as many as six cuts from the Federal Reserve. However, with last month’s employment data coming in pretty strong, there is a lot of riding on the first month or two of data this year. πŸ“

Unfortunately for stock market bulls and rate-cut enthusiasts, today’s consumer price index (CPI) data did not help their case.

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Market Looks Past CPI Report

If it feels like the market is largely finished obsessing about inflation data, it’s because it essentially is. Unless there’s a significant pick up in the core inflation metrics the Fed is watching closely, the market seems set on rates staying steady at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

And August’s consumer price index (CPI) data did little to move the needle. 😴

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The War On Inflation Is Won

It wouldn’t be an inflation data day without some drama, so let’s get into what happened. πŸ‘‡

First off, the headline consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% MoM and 3.7% YoY. That was ten bps above estimates, driven primarily by higher energy prices. As for core consumer prices, they rose 0.3% MoM and 4.1% YoY, as expected.

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Job Market Continues Cooling

The U.S. labor market continues to cool, which is great news for the Federal Reserve and its 2% inflation goal. While we’ll get more employment data in the days ahead, the November Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) report was significant.

From a job openings perspective, they fell to their lowest level since March 2021 at 8.79 million. That pushed the ratio of job openings to available workers down to 1.4:1, well off its peak of 2:1, where it sat for most of 2022. πŸ“Š

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