August’s Retail Boost ⚡

After a drop in July, retail sales gained ground in August. The Commerce Department posted that U.S. retailer sales grew 0.7% last month. 

The rise in retail sales comes days after initial claims (an indicator for layoffs) were reported to be near a pandemic low. Furthermore, the unemployment rate was 5.2% in August, a 0.2% decrease month-over-month.

Some investors are feeling confident that America hasn’t really started to break the bank. 💸 According to analysts, retail sales were high despite the Delta variant last month, leaving many asking what could happen if Delta’s threat was mitigated. Analysts point to suppressed travel numbers, anticipated employment growth, and other similar factors.

But some analysts have a new favorite boogeyman — you’ve heard of inflation, but what about stagflation? 👻 Stagflation is characterized by slow growth and high inflation, which some analysts repeatedly insist is more likely given our trajectory. Analysts have cited rising energy prices, supply chain shortages, and the like.

Three indexes were down today in spite of the good news. 

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The War On Inflation Is Won

It wouldn’t be an inflation data day without some drama, so let’s get into what happened. 👇

First off, the headline consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% MoM and 3.7% YoY. That was ten bps above estimates, driven primarily by higher energy prices. As for core consumer prices, they rose 0.3% MoM and 4.1% YoY, as expected.

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CPI Brings It Home For Bulls

The Fed’s hawkish tone toward interest rates and inflation kept a lid on the market. However, today’s consumer price index (CPI) data renewed bulls’ hope that we could avoid a “higher for longer” situation after all.

October’s headline consumer price index (CPI) was unchanged MoM and rose 3.2% YoY, below expectations for a 0.1% and 3.3% increase. That was also down from September’s 0.4% MoM rise. 🔻

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Jobs: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly

Jobs numbers today showed that the U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling faster than an iced latte in a polar vortex. Analysts expected 180k, but the number came in lower at 150k, missing the mark like a North Korean rocket test. 👨‍🚀

The Good 😃

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The Scariest Chart Is Not a Crypto

Ninja. Guppy. Yuppy. Widowmaker. 🕷️

These are all nicknames for the most traded Japanese Yen FX (Forex) pairs (Ninja – USDJPY, Yuppy – EURJPY, Guppy – GBPJPY).

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