“The Vacation Spike”

Airlines, cruise lines, hotel chains, and travel companies are bracing for a vacation rush after a wild last 19 months. 😊

In a new interview on Axios, Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky said he foresees a travel spike as workers rush to use their PTO by the end of the year. An internal poll conducted by the company shows that “half of people are in danger of losing PTO by year’s end.” 

Chesky isn’t the only CEO predicting a travel boost. Several weeks ago, Chesky appeared at Skift Travel Forum to discuss a new golden age of travel.” Many travel leaders shared his sentiment, with some pointing out that work-from-home might encourage more “bleisure” travel (that’s business and leisure.) ✈ïļ ðŸŒī

Travel throughput at airports has been gradually rising over the last few months, despite sitting well below 2019 throughput. Carnival Cruise Lines’ CEO said that bookings for early next year were besting 2019 levels. And Hilton CEO Christopher Nassetta shared his belief that travel demand would eclipse 2019 levels in a matter of three years.”

At this rate, it’s hard to know how the travel recovery will manifest. With that being said, upbeat tones throughout the travel industry are bullish indicators for the future. 📈 💚

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CPI Brings It Home For Bulls

The Fed’s hawkish tone toward interest rates and inflation kept a lid on the market. However, today’s consumer price index (CPI) data renewed bulls’ hope that we could avoid a “higher for longer” situation after all.

October’s headline consumer price index (CPI) was unchanged MoM and rose 3.2% YoY, below expectations for a 0.1% and 3.3% increase. That was also down from September’s 0.4% MoM rise. ðŸ”ŧ

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The War On Inflation Is Won

It wouldn’t be an inflation data day without some drama, so let’s get into what happened. 👇

First off, the headline consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% MoM and 3.7% YoY. That was ten bps above estimates, driven primarily by higher energy prices. As for core consumer prices, they rose 0.3% MoM and 4.1% YoY, as expected.

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A Divergence In Homebuilders

Today’s National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index experienced its first negative reading in seven months. ðŸ”ŧ

The index dropped 5 points to 45 in September, with all three components declining. Current sales conditions slipped to 51, sales expectations in the next six months fell to 49, and buyer traffic dropped to 30.

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Yield Curve Inversion Deepens

It’s been about a year since the yield curve popped onto investors’ radars, with us discussing it in October and November of 2022. ◀ïļ

As discussed in our posts, a yield curve inversion is not a perfect indicator of a recession, but it has a pretty good track record. That’s because when short-term rates are above long-term rates, investors believe growth (i.e., inflation) will be higher in the short term than the longer term. As such, they demand a higher yield to hold short-term bonds than long-term ones.

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