Inflation, Migration, and Short Supply

A lot of fun and exciting things happened in 2021, but the rise of inflation in the U.S. is not something anyone is stoked about. Oh, and neither were the supply shortages or big corporations’ failure to properly compensate their workers. 👎

In November 2021, inflation surged to its highest rate since 1982 — the CPI increased 0.8% in November alone. November’s CPI boost elevated the year-over-year inflation rate to 6.8%.

Higher inflation means a higher cost of goods and services. Last month, energy prices rose 33.3% and gas prices are up a whopping 58.1%. Used car/truck prices are up 31.4%, +2.5% in November alone. Thankfully, the consumer confidence index rose a couple points in early December, which could point to easing fears about the U.S. economy. 

Some economists believe inflation is approaching its peak (we can only hope.) Randy Frederick, a managing director of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab, shared: “There’s no question no matter how you look at it, even if you take out the extremes caused by the pandemic, it’s still very high inflation. This is still supply chain disruption, semiconductor-related inflation.” Will 2022 welcome that inflation peak?? 🙏 Only time will tell.

In addition to rampant inflation, 2021 saw a new labor movement which coincided with widespread supply shortages. Liz Young, the chief investment officer of Sofi, commented: “Now we’ve got this weird problem of inflation being high, and a labor market that’s sort of stuck, and that’s what the rest of the year ended up being about.”

In 2021, older Americans retired in droves as stimulus-related gains fueled the growth of their retirement plans; younger professionals participated in the Great Migration, or the mass exodus of skilled workers leaving their offices in search of greater flexibility (often to get time at home with family members) and more fulfilling employment opportunities. These two factors combined with the development of worker coalitions challenging corporations for better pay and working conditions made 2021 a monumental year for the evolution of ‘work’ in the United States.

Between widespread labor movements, workers’ Great Migration, growing inflation, and short supply of d*mn near everything in the U.S. right now, hopefully 2022 welcomes an era of solutions to these challenging economic issues. 🤞

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