Manufacturing A Slowdown

It’s a holiday weekend, so we’ll keep this glum economic update short. ๐Ÿฉณ

Essentially, it boils down to what we’ve been talking about in the Rip for a long time.ย 

Inflation remainsย too high around the globe, with the Eurozone reporting a new record high of 8.6% today. ๐Ÿ”ฅ

As a result, most central banks are raising rates and taking other aggressive measures to combat inflation. Norway and Sweden joined the party this week. โฌ†๏ธ

Meanwhile, record-high prices and rising interest rates are causing consumer and business sentiment to push multi-year lows (or, by some measures, record lows). ๐Ÿ‘Ž

And manufacturing activity is softening as more and more businesses act defensively to prepare for a potential recession. ๐Ÿญ

So, the question is, isย it possible that we all are “manufacturing” a recession by changing our behavior in anticipation of a recession? ๐Ÿค”

That seems to be a theory many people are throwing around these days.

We’ll have to wait and see, but the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow gauge is now forecasting Q2 GDP at -2.10%. If it does come in anywhere near that forecast, then we’ll have a real recession on our hands (2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth). ๐Ÿ”ป

For now, though, let’s all forget the bad vibes and enjoy our three-day weekend with too much food/drink, fireworks, and whatever else we enjoy on our days off. ๐Ÿ–๏ธ

The existential crisis about the economy (and the rest of the work we skipped this week) will be waiting for us on Tuesday when we return… ๐Ÿ“…

More in   Economy

View All

FOMC Minute & Economic Data Summary

The Federal Reserve released its July meeting minutes today. And while there’s often a lot of noise in the meetings (and this one was no exception), the key takeaway ultimately hasn’t changed. ๐Ÿ”‘

The Federal Reserve will keep hiking rates until the core measures of inflation show meaningful progress towards their 2% long-term rate.

Read It

What’s Going On With The Dollar & Why Investors Should Care

The foreign currency market doesn’t get much attention from individual investors until it’s at extremes.

Well, it’s safe to say we’re at a *relative* extreme.

The U.S. Dollar has become a hot topic as of late, with google trends for the term “United States Dollar” hitting their highest levels ever and a google news search returning over 8.5 million results from just this year alone.ย 

In this article, we want to break down what’s happening with the currency, what’s driving this behavior, and ultimately why investors care (or should consider caring if they don’t already).

Let’s jump into it.

Read It

The Inflation Merry-Go-Round Continues

The forecasting circus continued today as market participants got yet another inflation data point to analyze. ๐ŸŽช

Headline Consumer Prices (CPI) were flat MoM and decelerated to 8.5% YoY, below analyst expectations. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, rose 0.3% MoM and 5.9% YoY, matching its June pace.

Read It