Is The Jig Up For The Gig Economy?

Last year, the Biden administration rescinded a former rule that made it easier for gig companies to classify workers as independent contractors instead of employees. Today, they paved the way for more pro-worker reforms by releasing a new proposal that could cause regulators and courts to reclassify gig workers as employees. 📝

The proposed rule would make classifying workers more holistic, including questions like whether their work is an “integral” part of the employer’s business. 

Many gig economy companies classify their workers as independent contractors for their business models to work. However, with the Biden Labor Department’s new proposal, more regulation at the federal level will likely complicate things for their business. 

If you need any evidence of that, look to California. The state passed a similar law in 2020, but voters approved a proposition to exempt app-based ride-hailing and delivery companies after a ton of lobbying and campaigning.

While this new proposal is still in its early stages of the lawmaking process, the news sent shares of $UBER, $LYFT, and $DASH all down sharply today. Bearish investors argue that if these companies aren’t profitable while hiring contractors, they’re unlikely to reach that milestone if they need to absorb more employee-related costs. ðŸŧ

As a result, any news around the employee vs. contractor debate tends to spook investors in these stocks. We’ll have to wait and see how this develops in the months ahead. 📆

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A Unanimous Decision

After a hectic few weeks in the banking sector, most of the market expected a 25 bp rate hike at today’s meeting. And that’s what the Fed delivered. 👍

Let’s start with the redlined version of the FOMC’s statement from Nick Timiraos: 

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Powell’s Poetic Jackson Hole Speech

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s highly-anticipated Jackson Hole speech initially sent the market indexes lower before rebounding to close the week mixed. 📝

Although he acknowledged the progress higher monetary policy has made on inflation, he reiterated that prices are still above the central bank’s target. As a result, the Fed is prepared to raise rates further and intends to hold policy at a restrictive level until confidence improves that inflation is sustainably moving towards its target. âŊïļ

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99 Probabilities But A Hike Ain’t One

We will keep this article quick because we’ve spoken about inflation and Fed expectations a ton already. But this chart is worth a look ahead of tomorrow’s meeting. 👇

Despite last week’s uptick in consumer and producer prices, the Fed is not expected to raise rates. The bond market is currently pricing in a 99% probability that the current rate is maintained, hence the Jay-Z-inspired title of this article.

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Chinese Regulators Aren’t Playing Games

As if investors in Chinese stocks didn’t have enough to worry about, the government introduced a new wild card. ðŸĪŠ

Beijing released draft guidelines designed to curb excessive gaming and spending among consumers. The proposed rules would require owners of online games to abstain from providing or condoning high-value or expensive transactions in virtual entities, whether by auction or speculative activity. Daily login rewards would also be banned, along with pop-up warnings to users displaying “irrational” consumption behavior. ðŸšŦ

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