Brace For Impact

We’ve all heard by now that inflation is here. CPI, the main measure of US inflation, is up 5.4% YoY. As of last month, it was still rising.

On the bright side, most of that inflation can be blamed on COVID, and it should end with COVID. Investors seem satisfied with that. However, companies are still sounding the alarm. 🚨

In the last few months, several companies raised prices, including Chipotleβ€” Chipotle increased prices by about 4%. πŸ™ 🌯 That decision paid off in earnings earlier this week, where $CMG reported earnings surpassing pre-COVID levels.

Appliance maker Whirlpool, Slim Jim-owner Conagra, PepsiCo, and product giant Procter & Gamble are a few of many brands raising prices.

Unfortunately, price increases are likely to stay even when inflation decreases. Maybe that’s good for investors, but it’s bad for everyone else. Keep an eye on companies raising prices on goods. πŸ•΅οΈβ€β™‚οΈ

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Fed’s Rate Cut Message Finally Heard

Inflation worries had all but disappeared recently. But as usual, the market likes to fool the majority, so we saw January’s consumer prices surprise to the upside today. 🫨

Headline CPI rose 0.3% MoM and 3.1% YoY, topping the 0.2% and 2.9% Wall Street had expected. Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy prices, rose 0.4% MoM and 3.9% YoY. Shelter was again the largest component driving the increase, climbing 0.6% MoM and 6% YoY. πŸ”Ί

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The Scariest Chart Is Not a Crypto

Ninja. Guppy. Yuppy. Widowmaker. πŸ•·οΈ

These are all nicknames for the most traded Japanese Yen FX (Forex) pairs (Ninja – USDJPY, Yuppy – EURJPY, Guppy – GBPJPY).

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U.S. Jobs Data Back In Focus

The bond market continued to rally during a busy day of economic data, with October’s JOLTs data standing out to investors. Let’s recap it all. πŸ‘‡

First off, October’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) signaled a continued slowdown in the labor market. Job openings fell to their lowest level since March 2021, at 8.7 million, while the ratio of openings to available workers ticked down to 1.3:1. That’s well below its peak of 2.0:1 set earlier in the year. πŸ“‰

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Yield Curve Inversion Deepens

It’s been about a year since the yield curve popped onto investors’ radars, with us discussing it in October and November of 2022. ◀️

As discussed in our posts, a yield curve inversion is not a perfect indicator of a recession, but it has a pretty good track record. That’s because when short-term rates are above long-term rates, investors believe growth (i.e., inflation) will be higher in the short term than the longer term. As such, they demand a higher yield to hold short-term bonds than long-term ones.

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