Arthur Hayes Says Quantitative Easing Is ‘Almost There’ As MOVE Index Flashes Stress Amid U.S.-Iran War

• In a post on X, Arthur Hayes noted that the MOVE Index had hit 115, a level often seen as signaling extreme fear and volatility.
• According to him, this could be a catalyst that could force the U.S. Treasury to pivot toward liquidity-easing measures.
• Hayes has stated on multiple occasions that any financial stress that forces the Federal Reserve or the Treasury to inject liquidity into the market is bullish for Bitcoin. 

BitMEX co-founder and the chief investment officer at Maelstrom, Arthur Hayes, hinted on Friday that the time for the Federal Reserve to print money is “almost there,” signaling upside for Bitcoin (BTC) and the cryptocurrency market.

“Almost there,” he wrote in a post on X with an image of the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) Index at 115. “If Trump invades Iran, what is Buffalo Bill Bessent going to do to calm the UST market?”

What Is The MOVE Index And Why Does It Matter?

The MOVE Index measures the expected volatility in U.S. government bond markets. A reading between 55 and 70 signals a calm bond market, while a move above 100 signals high fear and volatility. The screenshot shared by Hayes showed the index bottoming in late 2025 and early 2026, moving above the 90 mark as the U.S.-Iran war began in late February. 

According to him, a move of that magnitude could prompt Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to step in with tools like buybacks or other liquidity measures to ease market stress tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict. Hayes has stated on multiple occasions that any financial stress that forces the Federal Reserve or the Treasury to inject liquidity into the market is bullish for Bitcoin. 

Bitcoin’s Price Takes A Hit 

Bitcoin’s price was trading at around $67,600 on Friday morning, down nearly 3% in the last 24 hours. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the cryptocurrency trended in ‘bearish’ territory, accompanied by ‘low’ levels of chatter. 

While Bitcoin has held up better than other financial assets amid the U.S.-Iran war, it remains more than 45% below its record high of over $126,000 set in October last year and is down more than 20% year-to-date.

Read also: Nvidia, CEO Jensen Huang Face Certified Class Action Lawsuit Over Alleged $1B Crypto Revenue Misstatements

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