Ben Cowen Sees October Low Scenario For BTC: ‘Bitcoin Does Not Have A Monopoly On 4-Year Cycle’

• Ben Cowen said a correction in US stocks later this year could drag Bitcoin toward a cycle low around October.
• The analyst tied Bitcoin's outlook to the S&P 500, saying that four-year market cycles are not unique to crypto.
• Cowen pointed to 2018, when a second-half equity correction coincided with Bitcoin's collapse below $6,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) investors may be watching ETF flows and Federal Reserve signals, but ex-NASA researcher and macro analyst Benjamin Cowen believes the market's most important chart right now is the S&P 500 (SPX).

The founder and CEO of Into the Cryptoverse said his base-case scenario remains a "secondary correction" in U.S. equities later this year, arguing that Bitcoin's status as a high-beta, liquidity-sensitive asset could leave it vulnerable to another leg lower. If stocks pull back meaningfully, Cowen believes Bitcoin could reach a cycle low around October.

Speaking on the Bitcoin Magazine podcast, Cowen added that he views the S&P 500 as a key macro anchor for Bitcoin. As evidence that four-year cycles are not unique to Bitcoin, he pointed to the S&P 500's historical tendency, saying that “Bitcoin does not have a monopoly on the four-year cycle. The S&P 500 for a long time bottomed approximately every four years.” Cowen highlighted major stock-market lows across the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, and early 1980s.

The 2018 Parallel

Cowen also referenced 2018, when a second-half correction in equities coincided with Bitcoin's breakdown below $6,000. He said a similar pattern could emerge later this year if US stocks undergo another meaningful pullback. Under that scenario, Cowen believes Bitcoin could find a cycle low around October.

Investors Are Watching The Wrong Signals

Cowen also challenged the way investors interpret market moves, arguing that "narrative follows price, not price follows narrative."

He said traders often invent explanations for Bitcoin's rallies and selloffs after they happen, whether the catalyst is exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Federal Reserve policy, or geopolitical events. Rather than focusing on headlines, Cowen said investors should pay closer attention to broader liquidity conditions and equity-market trends.

Cowen also argued that Bitcoin remains the foundation of the broader crypto market. "If Bitcoin does not survive, then all the other stuff goes to zero," he said, adding that while Bitcoin could survive without other cryptocurrencies, the reverse is not true. According to Cowen, alternative cryptocurrencies have only a "tiny, tiny, tiny percent chance" of surviving if Bitcoin fails.

Despite his cautious near-term view, Cowen said investors should avoid letting bearish narratives dominate their long-term outlook. "The bears sound smart, and the bulls make money," he said.

What Other Analysts Are Saying

Cowen was not alone in tying Bitcoin's near-term fate to equities. Crypto analyst Ali Charts posed a similar question on Tuesday: "What will happen to Bitcoin when the stock market tops?” alongside side-by-side charts showing the S&P 500 still near record highs while Bitcoin had already rolled over from its peak. 

Bitcoin’s price was trading at $66,720, down over 3%, during the past 24 hours. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around BTC remained in the ‘extremely bearish’ zone, while chatter around it stayed ‘high’ over the past day. U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs have added to the pressure, recording over $500 million outflow on Tuesday, according to So So Value data. 

Read also: RoboStrategy CEO Explains Why He Shifted Focus From Crypto To Physical AI – Calls RoboStrategy The ‘MicroStrategy Of Robotics’

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