Bitcoin Nears $69,000 But It May Be A False Show Of Strength – Analysts Flag Weak Demand, More Volatility Ahead

• According to CryptoQuant, on-chain data showed profitability recovering, though long-term metrics suggest no full market reset has occurred.
• JDK Analysis said that futures market activity indicated recent price support may be driven by short covering rather than new demand.
• Analysts warned that Bitcoin could revisit $60,000 if current support levels fail to hold.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price rose on Wednesday to just under $69,000, but analysts said the market remains fragile beneath the surface, with conflicting signals pointing to volatility in the weeks ahead.

Bitcoin’s price rose 1.7% in the last 24 hours to $68,800, according to CoinGecko data. Retail sentiment around the apex cryptocurrency on Stocktwits continued to trend in ‘bearish’ territory over the past day, with chatter at ‘low’ levels.

Data from CryptoQuant showed that the share of profitable Bitcoin supply has recovered to 66.4% as of April 1, with the 30-day moving average at 69.1%. However, the 365-day moving average remained elevated at 87.5%.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that a full market reset is normally marked by a sharp decline in the 365-day average. During the 2018–2019 cycle, that metric fell to 63.8% before the crypto winter set in. “The current picture is different,” he wrote. 

According to him, the market is experiencing severe internal compression in profitability, but it is still far from a true structural reset. “As long as the long-term average holds near 87.5%, this is better described as a prolonged cyclical correction with elevated two-way volatility, rather than a full bearish-phase reset,” Adler wrote.

Short Covering Supports Bitcoin Price, Not Fresh Demand

JDK Analysis also suggested that Bitcoin may be showing a false show of strength. It noted that spot markets are seeing active selling, while futures data showed aggressive buying largely driven by short covering rather than new long positions, which has helped keep prices supported near current levels. 

In a post on X, JDK said that as short positions unwind, the temporary bid supporting prices could fade, leaving the market exposed to continued selling pressure. In that scenario, Bitcoin could revisit range lows near $60,000 if the current trendline fails to hold.

Stablecoin Positioning Signals Potential Buying Power

Stablecoin allocations have increased, suggesting that investors are holding more liquidity in reserve, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards wrote in a post on X. According to him, this “dry powder” could provide support for Bitcoin if sentiment improves.

Edwards noted that allocations towards Bitcoin were elevated for much of 2025 but have since normalized, drawing comparisons to market conditions seen in 2022. According to him, the shift reflects a more cautious stance among investors, but also leaves room for re-entry if macro conditions stabilize.

Bitcoin broke its five-month losing streak with a gain of over 1% in March, but remains more than 45% below its record high of over $126,000 seen in October last year and has lost over 20% year-to-date.

For now, analysts expect continued volatility, with Bitcoin trading in a broad range until a clearer catalyst emerges.

Read also: Bitcoin Reclaims $68K But Ethereum Outpaces Gains Ahead Of Trump's Iran Speech

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.