Bitcoin’s Path To $2.9 Million Hinges On Global Trade, Central Bank Adoption: VanEck

• Bitcoin would need to account for between 5% to 10% of global trade settlement and 2.5% of the central bank’s balance sheet in order to reach the $2.9 million mark.
• In an absolute bear case, VanEck predicts Bitcoin’s price will only rise to $130,000 by 2050. 
• It also noted that liquidity conditions will play a larger role than dollar movements in impacting Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price is predicted to reach $2.9 million by 2050 if it can increase adoption as a settlement currency for global trade and a reserve asset for central banks.

According to a report by VanEck, Bitcoin would need to account for between 5% to 10% of global trade settlement and 2.5% of the central bank’s balance sheet in order to reach that goal. The firm went so far as to say that the risk of having zero exposure to Bitcoin in one’s portfolio may be a bigger risk than the volatility of the crypto markets. 

Bitcoin’s price was holding ground at around $90,000 on Friday morning. The apex cryptocurrency slid 0.1% in the last 24 hours, with retail sentiment on Stocktwits steady in the ‘extremely bullish’ territory with chatter at ‘high’ levels.

Bitcoin’s Price Could Even Cross $53 Million

The prediction that Bitcoin’s price will hit $2.9 million by 2050 is the firm’s ‘base’ case for the cryptocurrency. Under the bull case scenario, VanEck said “hyper-bitcoinization” could take Bitcoin’s price as high as $53.4 million. For this to happen, the cryptocurrency  would need to capture 20% of international trade and 10% of domestic GDP, 

VanEck added that this scenario requires Bitcoin to achieve parity with, or surpass, gold as a primary global reserve asset, constituting nearly 30% of global financial assets.

In the absolute bear case, VanEck predicts Bitcoin’s price will rise only to $130,000 by 2050. For this to happen, it is assumed that the cryptocurrency’s adoption will fall, and stagnation will take over the market.

What Signals To Look Out For?

VanEck said global liquidity will be the primary driver of Bitcoin’s long-term price behavior. It cited that since 2014, Bitcoin has shown a correlation of 0.43 with the total global M2 money supply. When adjusted for the five largest currencies, changes in M2 explain more than half of Bitcoin’s historical price movement.

The asset manager also stated that the relationship between Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar has changed. Bitcoin once showed a strong inverse correlation with the dollar index (DXY), but that link has weakened in recent years. VanEck said Bitcoin seems to be responding more to global fiscal conditions than to U.S. currency strength alone.

A third indicator that the firm is watching is Bitcoin’s volatility being driven by derivatives markets rather than spot selling. It said that since late 2020, changes in Bitcoin futures open interest account for nearly 75% of price variance.

Bitcoin’s price has been range-bound of late. Fundstrat’s managing director, Mark Newton, said on Thursday that cryptocurrencies are part of a broader multi-year cycle rather than an immediate breakout story. He predicted that crypto is more likely a mid-2026 to 2028 opportunity.

Read also: Solana Rallies While Bitcoin Stalls Near $91,000 Ahead Of Trump Tariff Ruling, Jobs Data

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