Bitcoin’s Stability Amid Oil Spike Reflects ‘Macro Reset,’ Analysts Say – BTC Holds $70K Through Geopolitical Shock

• Bitcoin stayed around $70,000 on Tuesday as US and Israeli forces continued to attack Iran after Trump’s proposed peace offering.
• Bitcoin has held ground amid geopolitical tensions, as analysts warned that the asset's price is heavily dependent on oil and a rate cut.
• For some analysts, that resilience may signal a deeper shift in Bitcoin’s behavior in a macro-driven market.

While BTC briefly slipped below $70,000 during the initial risk-off wave, when the Iran-Israel conflict escalated, it rebounded quickly—and notably without the sharp breakdowns seen in past crises.

Analysts from QCP Capital and Wintermute have called the move to “lower leverage across the system.” 

QCP Capital explained that recent price behavior may indicate a shift in how Bitcoin reacts during periods of market stress compared with traditional assets such as equities and gold. 

The report also pointed to broader macro conditions, including rising U.S. debt levels and fiscal spending, as factors influencing investor positioning. “In such an environment, BTC could increasingly function as a neutral escape valve,” it added.

Bitcoin was trading at $70,967, down by over 2% in the last 24 hours. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around Bitcoin remained in the ‘bearish’ territory, as chatter levels around it remained ‘low’ over the past day. 

Analysts said macroeconomic factors, including oil prices and interest rate expectations, were likely to influence Bitcoin’s next move. "The macro ceiling has shifted," analysts at Wintermute said in their Monday market update, pointing to the next five days as critical for the price direction of Bitcoin.

Oil Prices Cloud Bitcoin's Path Forward

Brent crude was trading near $103 per barrel on Tuesday after briefly spiking above $113 amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Despite Trump’s remarks about potential diplomatic progress, strikes between Iran and Israel have continued, keeping markets on edge. Latest reports suggest that a huge U.S. Marine troop is expected to reach the Middle East the same day as Trump’s Iran deadline.

Analysts say oil prices remain a key variable for Bitcoin, as elevated energy costs feed into inflation expectations and influence the outlook for monetary policy.

Bitcoin’s Price Depends On Fed Policy 

Additionally, last week the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with 14 out of 19 participants projecting zero or one cut through 2026. The decision triggered $708 million in single-day outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the largest in two months, according to Wintermute. 

Despite these pressures, Bitcoin held relatively firm, while gold declined more than 10% over the week as the U.S. dollar strengthened and leveraged positions were unwound.

Analysts say that a sustained de-escalation and oil price stabilization could allow Bitcoin to retest the $74,000-$76,000 resistance, according to both firms. However, renewed disruptions could likely push Bitcoin back toward the mid-$60,000 range.

Interestingly, Bernstein has reportedly maintained its $150,000 year-end price target on Bitcoin.

Read also: Wall Street’s Tokenization Plan? NYSE Reportedly Teams Up With Securitize

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.