SpaceX IPO Valuation: The $500B Gap Between Wall Street And Blockchain Nobody Is Talking About

• Investment banks are reportedly targeting a valuation for SpaceX above $2 trillion ahead of a potential public listing.
• Chan Ahn, the founder and CEO of Tessera Lab, told Stocktwits that on-chain instruments and prediction markets are consistently pricing SpaceX closer to $1.5 trillion.
• He explained that the gap reflects differences in access to information, the investor base, and the structural features of on-chain instruments.

Tesla (TSLA) chief executive Elon Musk announced that the EV market is expanding its relationship with SpaceX (SPACEX), but not everyone agrees on what the space company is worth. While banks are targeting a $2 trillion valuation, on-chain data suggests a figure closer to $1.5 trillion.

Chan Ahn, the founder and CEO of Tessera Lab, who is also a Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan veteran, told Stocktwits that on-chain markets offer a distinct, consistently lower view of SpaceX’s valuation.

Ahn launched T-SpaceX in February, an on-chain instrument that provides economic exposure to SpaceX through a loan participation structure. The product trades continuously on decentralized exchanges, offering a real-time market signal rather than periodic valuation updates typical of private markets.

Since launch, more than 600 traders have generated over $100 million in notional volume, with pricing consistently implying a SpaceX valuation of roughly $1.54 trillion. According to a Bloomberg report, the contrasting $2 trillion valuation leans heavily on AI hype.

“The same $1.54 trillion figure has been independently arrived at by Polymarket traders operating with no connection to T-SpaceX. When two structurally unrelated on-chain markets converge on a number that is a consistent discount to the bank target, that convergence deserves attention.”  

— Chan Ahn, Founder & CEO, Tessera Lab

Why Is There A $500 Billion Gap In SpaceX’s Valuation?

Ahn pointed to three factors driving the roughly $500 billion gap between traditional and on-chain valuations.

The first, he said, is execution risk. Bank-led estimates assume continued growth in SpaceX’s key businesses, including Starlink revenue expansion, successful deployment of next-generation Starship systems, and the integration of Musk’s artificial intelligence initiatives. These assumptions are plausible but not yet validated through public financial disclosures.

Ahn noted that the second factor was structural. T-SpaceX provides economic exposure, not equity ownership. Investors do not receive voting rights or dividends, and the instrument is designed to trade at a discount to the underlying equity value.

The third difference is the investor base, he said. On-chain markets are dominated by retail and crypto-native participants, while institutional investors are participating in private discussions with access to non-public information. Hence, each group prices risk differently.

“Bank-led valuations are negotiated estimates based on privileged access,” Ahn told Stocktwits. “On-chain pricing reflects the aggregated views of a broader group trading without that advantage.”

Tesla And SpaceX Operational Tries Grow Closer

During the first quarter (Q1) earnings call, Musk said the two companies are going to partner to build a “Terafab” in Austin, a project expected to cost tens of billions of dollars and produce advanced chips for artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles, and space-based computing systems. 

The filings also showed Tesla had disclosed a $2 billion equity investment in SpaceX, which reduced its free cash flow for the quarter.

TSLA’s stock fell nearly 5% in morning trade on Thursday. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the EV maker trended in ‘extremely bullish’ territory over the past day, while chatter rose to ‘high’ from ‘normal’ levels. Retail sentiment around SpaceX, which isn’t publicly traded yet, trended in the ‘bearish’ zone.

Traditional Private Markets Vs On-Chain Data 

According to Ahn, the broader argument is not that on-chain markets are more accurate, but that they answer a different question. “I’d be asking why two very different methodologies land near each other, and at a consistent discount to where management is currently testing the market,” he said.

Ahn explained that private market valuations are set through infrequent funding rounds and negotiations, often under conditions of limited transparency. On-chain instruments, by contrast, provide continuous pricing based on open participation, even if that pricing reflects less-informed participants. “Traditional private markets give you a snapshot,” he said. “On-chain markets give you a live feed.”

The SpaceX roadshow is confirmed for the week of June 8 with pricing targeted for June 15. According to Ahn, between the roadshow kicking off and the final listing is when investment banks will have institutional price discovery conversations. He forecast that they may not necessarily cite T-SpaceX or Polymarket at the roadshow, but the $500 billion is likely to be too big to ignore. 

That data will matter more for crypto's role in capital markets than any regulatory announcement or theoretical argument. The test is live. 

— Chan Ahn, Founder & CEO, Tessera Lab

Somewhere in the gap between those numbers is the price the public market will set on June 15, Ahn said. Which one proves closer to reality will become clear when public investors set the price.

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