AAPL Stock Dips Premarket: Analyst Warns Foldable iPhone Supply Issues Could Blow September Launch Window

• Foldable iPhone shipments would be 7 million to 8 million in the second half of this year, according to Kuo.
• The device might get sold out immediately due to its limited supply.
• Stocktwits sentiment for AAPL dipped to ‘bearish’ on Monday.

Apple Inc.’s foldable iPhone will be announced in September but may not go on sale until the fourth quarter as manufacturing challenges limit early production, a key analyst said Monday.

Taiwanese analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said his latest supply chain survey showed assembly shipments of the foldable iPhone would total about 7 million to 8 million units in the second half of 2026, with only 500,000 to 1 million units expected in the third quarter. 

By comparison, assembly shipments of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are estimated at 20-22 million units in the third quarter, sufficient to support a regular launch.

Kuo said the foldable iPhone’s rollout is likely to mirror that of the iPhone X in 2017, which was unveiled alongside the iPhone 8 lineup but reached consumers weeks later because of production bottlenecks. 

Foldable iPhone Would Be Sold Out Immediately, Kuo Says

Apple could similarly announce the foldable model with its other new iPhones, while delaying pre-orders and commercial availability until the fourth quarter as inventories build.

Kuo believes the foldable iPhone would cost between $2,300 and $2,500 and the demand “should remain strong at least through the end of 2026.”

“This means the foldable iPhone could sell out immediately after pre-orders open, with delivery lead times quickly stretching to 4–6 weeks or longer and remaining there through December,” Kuo wrote.

Retail View On AAPL

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for AAPL dipped to ‘bearish’ as of early Monday, from ‘neutral’ the previous day. The message volume for the ticker, however, rose 40% over the past week.

AAPL shares rose nearly 5% on Thursday, the final trading session of the shortened week due to the Independence Day holiday, boosting investor optimism and taking the stock’s year-to-date gains to 13.7%. In comparison, the benchmark S&P 500 has gained 9.3% in this period.

The long-rumored foldable iPhone is being closely watched by fans and investors, even though it is set to arrive years after the first foldable smartphones entered the market. While foldables have generated considerable interest, sales have so far remained limited, with the devices largely appealing to enthusiasts rather than the mainstream market.

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