AES Stock Tumbles Ahead Of Q4 Results: Earnings Expected To Fall, Retail Stays Divided

Data shows AES beat EPS expectations in all the past four quarters, but it missed revenue estimates in each of these quarters.
Representative image of stock price falling.
Representative image of stock price falling. (Photo by Jaap Arriens/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
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Rounak Jain·Stocktwits
Updated Jul 02, 2025 | 8:31 PM GMT-04
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Shares of AES Corp. (AES) fell nearly 5% on Thursday ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter results, with retail investors exercising caution.

Wall Street expects AES to post earnings per share (EPS) of $0.35 in Q4, down by over 50% year-on-year (YoY), from $0.73 a year ago. AES’s topline is expected to expand to $3.07 billion in Q4, compared to $2.97 billion a year ago.

Data shows AES beat EPS expectations in all the past four quarters, but it missed revenue estimates in each of these quarters.

Analysts at Barclays, Evercore ISI, and Argus lowered their price targets for the AES stock in the run up to Q4 results, according to The Fly.

Barclays cut its price target to $12 from $17 while maintaining an ‘Overweight’ rating on the AES stock, noting that the company’s fundamentals are still intact and there is an upward bias to the company’s Q4 growth.

Evercore analysts slashed the price target to $15 from $23 with an ‘Outperform’ rating. Despite the cut, the brokerage said that moderating inflation, potential interest rate cuts, and rising electricity demand are tailwinds for AES.

Analysts at HSBC initiated coverage of AES with a ‘Buy’ rating and a $17 price target, observing that the recent stock pullback offers an opportunity for investors to buy into the company.

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits around the AES stock remained ‘bearish’ even as message volume surged to ‘high’ levels.

AES retail sentiment.jpg
AES sentiment and message volume February 28, 2025, as of 12:30 am ET | Source: Stocktwits

However, not everyone is as bearish – one user pointed out that AES is the “cheapest energy stock in the market.”

AES is scheduled to report its Q4 earnings on Friday after the markets open.

AES’s shares are down over 19% year-to-date (YTD). The stock has been on a downward trend over the past year, falling more than 31% during this period.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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