ALK Stock Plunges After Hours on $600M Q2 Fuel-Cost Hammer

• Alaska Air missed Q1 analyst revenue and profit expectations. 
• Aircraft fuel expenses jumped by 17% in Q1 to $796 million, leading to a higher loss per share of $1.69.
• According to data from Koyfin, the 12-month average price target on ALK is $57.53, representing a potential upside of about 32% from last close. 

Alaska Air Group (ALK) shares tumbled about 6% in after-market trading after the company forecast an additional hit of $600 million worth of fuel expenses in the upcoming quarter ending June 2026. 

ALK expects a second-quarter (Q2) loss per share of $1, deeper than the Wall Street consensus of a loss of $0.15. For the quarter ended March 2026 (Q1), it reported a 5% year-on-year rise in revenue to $3.3 billion, beating analyst expectations, according to Koyfin data. Its Q1 loss widened to $1.69 per share from $1.35 per share in the same quarter last year.  

While the U.S. airline industry sees no dearth in demand, Alaska Air, along with the rest of the commercial airline industry, has been reeling under the pressure of high fuel prices as the U.S.-Iran war sent crude prices skyrocketing. 

According to data from Airlines Reporting Corp (ARC), a U.S.-based travel agency, air ticket sales totaled $10.4 billion in March 2026 — a 12% increase from March 2025.

ALK Management Commentary 

The aircraft operator failed to provide a full-year revenue or profit guidance for 2026. “For full year 2026, our visibility to earnings is limited due primarily to ongoing fuel price volatility. Until conditions stabilize and we have better sight to earnings beyond the current quarter, we have suspended full-year guidance,” the company said in a statement. 

“April fuel is expected to be approximately $4.75 per gallon, and we expect the quarter to average approximately $4.50 based on the forward curve today. This assumption adds approximately $600 million of expense to the second quarter, equivalent to an earnings per share headwind of $3.60. We expect to consume approximately 297 million gallons of fuel in the quarter based on our current capacity plan,” the company said in a statement. 

What Do Analysts Say?

16 analysts rate the stock ‘buy’ or higher with the 12-month average price target on is $57.53, representing a potential upside of about 32% from the last close, according to data from Koyfin.

What Do Retail Investors Say?

One user expressed concern over the lack of a full-year guidance. 

https://stocktwits.com/amberajax2point0/message/650836860

Another user was hopeful that the U.S.-Iran war would be over soon enough, and most of the oil-dependent stocks would return to their original levels. 

https://stocktwits.com/Championinvestor/message/650835674

ALK stock has dropped 13.4% year-to-date. 

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